Nigeria’s GDP Rebounds 0.11 Percent in Q4-2020
Yemi Kalejaiye, National Bureau of Statistics Chief

Nigeria’s GDP Rebounds 0.11 Percent in Q4-2020

Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rebounds 0.11 percent year on year in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2020, National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said in a new report.

This is the first positive quarterly growth in the last three quarters after two consecutive negative growth that plunged the economy into recession.

Sustain GDP rebounds in the next quarters will fully upturn the economy from trough after hitting the bottom in the third quarter of 2020 due to economic lockdown.

Both oil and non-oil sector growth drove the nation GDP rebounds. Specifically, the non-oil sector contributed 91.84% to real GDP, higher than 91.22% recorded in 2019.

Meanwhile, the oil sector contributed 5.87% to total real GDP in Q4 2020, down from the corresponding period of 2019 and the preceding quarter, where it contributed 7.32% and 8.73% respectively.

Though weak, NBS said the positive growth reflects the gradual return of economic activities following the easing of restricted movements and limited local and international commercial activities in the preceding quarters.

As a result, while the Q4 2020 growth rate was lower than growth rate recorded the previous year by –2.44% points, it was higher by 3.74% points compared to Q3 2020.

On a quarter on quarter basis, real GDP was 9.68% indicating a second positive consecutive quarter on quarter real growth rate in 2020 after two negative quarters.

Overall, in 2020, the annual growth of real GDP was estimated at –1.92%, a decline of –4.20% points when compared to the 2.27% recorded in 2019.

In the quarter under review, aggregate GDP stood at N43,564,006.29 million in nominal terms.

This performance is higher when compared to the fourth quarter of 2019 which recorded a GDP aggregate of N39,577,340.04 million, representing a year on year nominal growth rate of 10.07%.

This growth rate was lower relative to growth recorded in the fourth quarter of 2019 by –2.26% points but higher than the preceding quarter by 6.68% points with growth rates recorded at 12.34% and 3.39% respectively.

For better clarity, the Nigerian economy has been classified broadly into the oil and non-oil sectors. In the fourth quarter of 2020, an average daily oil production of 1.56 million barrels per day (mbpd) was recorded.

This was lower than the daily average production of 2.00mbpd recorded in the same quarter of 2019 by -0.44mbpd and the third quarter of 2020 by –0.11mbpd.

Real growth of the oil sector was –19.76% in Q4 2020 indicating a decrease by –26.12% points relative to the rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2019.

Growth decreased by –5.87% points when compared to Q3 2020. Quarter-on-quarter, the oil sector recorded a growth rate of –26.27% in Q4 2020.

For 2020, the oil sector grew at –8.89% compared to 4.59% in 2019.

The oil sector contributed 5.87% to total real GDP in Q4 2020, down from the corresponding period of 2019 and the preceding quarter, where it contributed 7.32% and 8.73% respectively.

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The non-oil sector grew by 1.69% in real terms in Q4 2020, slower than the 2.26% recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2019, but better than the –2.51% growth rate recorded in the preceding quarter.

Though the nation’s GDP rebounds, but for the full year of 2020, the non-oil sector grew –1.25% compared to 2.06% in 2019.

It was noted that growth in the sector was driven by Information and Communication (Telecommunications & Broadcasting).

Other drivers were Agriculture (Crop Production), Real Estate, Manufacturing (Food, Beverage & Tobacco), Mining and Quarrying (Quarrying and other Minerals), and Construction, accounting for positive GDP.

In real terms, the Non-Oil sector contributed 94.13% to the nation’s GDP in the fourth quarter of 2020, higher than the share recorded in the fourth quarter of 2019 (92.68%) and the third quarter of 2020 (91.27%).

For 2020, the Non-Oil sector contributed 91.84% to real GDP, higher than 91.22% recorded in 2019.

The Mining & Quarrying sector consists of Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas, Coal Mining, Metal ore and Quarrying and other Minerals sub-activities.

This sector grew nominally by –12.32% (year on year) in Q4 2020 while annual growth rate was –15.02% in 2020.

Quarrying and other minerals exhibited the highest growth rate of all the sub-activities at 117.48%, followed by metal ore activity at 2.73%.

However, Crude Petroleum and Natural gas was the main contributor to the sector with a weight of 86.79% in Q4 2020, and 93.95% for the annual contribution.

The performance in Q4 2020 indicates a decline of -25.07% points compared to the previous year, but an increase of 7.60% points compared to the preceding quarter.

The Mining & Quarrying sector contributed 5.46% to overall GDP in the fourth quarter of 2020, lower than the contributions recorded in Q4 2019 (6.86%) and 7.65% recorded in the preceding quarter.

Overall contribution in 2020 was recorded at 7.12% against 8.85% recorded in 2019.

In real terms, the Mining and Quarrying sector grew by –18.44% (year-on-year) in the fourth quarter of 2020.

Compared to the same quarter of 2019 and third quarter 2020, it was lower by –24.51% points and –5.22% points respectively.

Quarter on quarter, the growth rate recorded was –25.02%. This sector recorded an annual growth rate of –8.54% in 2020, compared to 4.43% recorded in 2019.

The contribution of Mining and Quarrying to Real GDP in Q4 2020 stood at 6.09%, lower than the rate of 7.48% recorded in Q4 2019 and 8.91% recorded in the third quarter of 2020.

Nevertheless, annual contribution to real GDP stood at 8.31% in 2020 from 8.91% recorded in 2019.

Four sub-activities make up the Agricultural sector: Crop Production, Livestock, Forestry and Fishing sector grew by 14.03% year-on-year in nominal terms in Q4 2020, showing a rise of 0.23% points from the same quarter of 2019.

Looking at the preceding quarter’s growth rate of 13.52%, there was an increase of 0.51% points.

The annual growth rate for the agricultural sector stood at 16.73% in 2020, slightly higher than in 2019.

Crop Production remained the major driver of the sector, as it accounts for 89.67% of overall nominal growth of the sector in Q4 2020 and 91.44% share in 2020.

Quarter on quarter growth stood at –4.98% in Q4 2020.

Agriculture contributed 24.23% to nominal GDP in the fourth quarter of 2020, higher than the rates recorded for the fourth quarter of 2019 but lower than the third quarter of 2020 which recorded 23.38% and 28.41% respectively.

The annual contribution of agriculture to nominal GDP in 2020 was 24.45%.

The agricultural sector, in the fourth quarter of 2020, grew by 3.42% (year-on-year) in real terms, an increase by 1.11% points from the corresponding period of 2019, and an increase of 2.03% points from the preceding quarter which recorded a growth rate of 1.39%.

It grew on a quarter on quarter basis at –3.93%. Real annual growth rate in 2020 was 2.17%.

However, the sector contributed 26.95% to overall GDP in real terms in Q4 2020, higher than the contribution in the fourth quarter of 2019 but lower than the third quarter of 2020 which stood at 26.09% and 30.77% respectively.

The annual 2020 contribution stood at 26.21%.

The Manufacturing sector is comprised of thirteen activities including Oil Refining; Cement; Food, Beverages and Tobacco; Textile, Apparel, and Footwear.

Others are Wood and Wood products; Pulp Paper and Paper products; Chemical and Pharmaceutical products; Non-metallic Products, Plastic and Rubber products.

It also include Electrical and Electronic, Basic Metal and Iron and Steel; Motor Vehicles and Assembly; and Other Manufacturing.

Nominal GDP growth of the Manufacturing sector in the fourth quarter of 2020 was recorded at 24.60% (year-on-year), -1.69% points lower than recorded in the corresponding period of 2019 (26.29%) but 11.06% points higher than the preceding quarter’s 13.54%.

Quarter on quarter growth of the sector was recorded at 5.78%. The Manufacturing sector recorded a growth rate of 16.44% in 2020, compared to 34.73% in 2019.

The contribution of Manufacturing to Nominal GDP in the fourth quarter of 2020 was 12.87%, higher than the corresponding period of 2019 at 11.37% but lower than the third quarter of 2020 at 13.56%.

Annual contribution was recorded at 12.83%, higher than the 11.64% recorded in 2019.

Real GDP growth in the manufacturing sector in the fourth quarter of 2020 was –1.51% (year on year), lower than the same quarter of 2019 and the preceding quarter by –2.75% points and –0.01% points respectively.

Growth rate of the sector, on a quarter-on-quarter basis, stood at 5.60%. For 2020, sector growth was –2.75%.

Real contribution to GDP in the fourth quarter of 2020 was 8.60%, lower than the 8.74% recorded in the fourth quarter of 2019 and the 8.93% recorded in third quarter 2020.

Nevertheless, annual contribution stood at 8.99% in 2020.

The Electricity, Gas, Steam and Air conditioning Supply sector recorded a year on year growth of 17.27% in the fourth quarter of 2020.

This was 6.38% points higher than the 10.88% growth rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2019, and 17.27% points higher than the growth rate of –0.01% recorded in the quarter before.

Quarter–on-quarter, the sector recorded a growth rate of 57.86% in Q4 2020. Annual growth of the sector was 10.39% in 2020.

The contribution of Electricity, Gas, Steam and Air Conditioning Supply to Nominal GDP in the fourth quarter 2020 was 0.98%, higher than the contribution in the corresponding quarter of 2019 at 0.92% and 0.69% in the quarter before.

For 2020, the sector’s contribution to nominal GDP was recorded at 0.75%.

In real terms, the sector grew by –2.51% in Q4 2020, an improvement from the growth rate of –7.82% recorded in the same quarter of 2019.

When compared to the immediate past quarter, there was an increase of 1.15% points from –3.66% recorded.

Quarter-on-Quarter, the sector grew at a rate of 44.86%. For full year 2020, growth was recorded at –2.90%, higher than the –4.86% recorded in 2019.

The contribution of this sector to real GDP in the fourth quarter of 2020 was 0.48%, lower slightly than 0.49% recorded in Q4 2019. However, annual contribution stood at 0.38% in 2020.

The Construction sector grew by 43.58% in nominal terms (year on year) in Q4 2020, a drop of –0.14% points compared to the rate of 43.72% recorded in the same quarter of 2019.

There was an increase by 8.08% points when compared to the rate recorded in the preceding quarter.

Nominal growth quarter on quarter was recorded at 29.38%. Annual growth of this sector stood at 29.37% in 2020.

Construction contributed 8.40% to nominal GDP in the fourth quarter of 2020, higher than the 6.44% it contributed a year earlier and the 7.23% contributed in the third quarter of 2020.

Annual contribution was recorded in 2020 at 7.64%.

The real growth rate of the construction sector in the fourth quarter of 2020 was recorded at 1.21% (year on year), lower by –0.10% points from the rate recorded a year earlier.

Relative to the preceding quarter, there was a decrease of –1.63% points.

Quarter on quarter, the sector grew by 18.55% in real terms, lower than 20.45% it recorded in Q4 2019.

Full year 2020 recorded –7.68% growth rate compared to the 1.81% recorded in 2019.

Its contribution to total real GDP was 3.47% in the fourth quarter of 2020; higher than its contribution of 3.44% in the same quarter of the previous year, and higher than in the immediate past quarter where it contributed 3.21%.

In annual terms, the sector accounted for 3.50% of real GDP.

In the fourth quarter of 2020, the nominal year on year growth rate of Trade stood at –0.66%.

This indicates a decrease by –2.69% points when compared to the fourth quarter of 2019 growth rate of 2.03% but 9.16% points higher than the previous quarter growth rate of –9.82%.

The quarter on quarter growth rate was 22.96%, while annual growth rate for 2020 was -6.23%.

Trade’s contribution to Nominal GDP in the fourth quarter of 2020 was 14.13%, lower than the contribution in the same quarter of the previous year (15.66%), but higher than the preceding quarter’s 12.81%.

By the end of 2020, the sector’s contribution was 13.86% compared to 15.61% recorded in 2019.

In real terms, Trade’s year on year growth stood at –3.20% in the fourth quarter of 2020, which was –2.62% points lower than the rate recorded the previous year, and 8.92% points higher than in the preceding quarter.

Quarter on quarter growth stood at 22.16%. This growth was higher than the quarter on quarter growth recorded in the fourth quarter of 2019 at 10.90%.

Annual growth of trade in 2020 stood at –8.49%.

In real terms, Trade’s contribution to GDP was 15.46%, lower than the 15.99% it represented in the previous year, but higher than the 13.88% recorded in the third quarter of 2020.

Annual contribution in 2020 stood at 14.94%, which was lower than the 16.01% recorded a year earlier.

Nigeria’s GDP Rebounds 0.11 Percent in Q4-2020