Terrorism Costs Nigeria 2.4% of GDP in 2019 – Report

Terrorism Costs Nigeria 2.4% of GDP in 2019 – Report

Terrorism costs Nigeria 2.4% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2019, a slow down when compare with the amount recorded in 2018, Global Terrorism Index (GTI) has said in a report.

The report however revealed that Afghanistan, Iraq and Nigeria maintained their positioned as the first, second and third most impacted countries by terrorism, respectively, for the second consecutive year.

According to the report, Nigeria has incurred the largest economic impact from 2007 to 2019 at $142 billion.

In 2019, 86 per cent of the economic impact of terrorism was recorded in three regions namely sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia and Middle East, North Africa (MENA).

Thus, GTI put global economic impact of terrorism at US$26.4 billion in 2019. This is 25 per cent less than the prior year and the fifth consecutive year that it has declined.

It has been observed that the improvement over the last four years is largely driven by the declining level of terrorism in Iraq, Nigeria, Pakistan and Syria.

Though, there seems to be an increase in attack in recent time, especially in Nigeria.

Since its peak of $116 billion in 2014, the economic impact has decreased by 77 per cent reflecting the reduction in terrorism deaths, injuries and attacks globally.

According to the report, since 2014, the economic impact of terrorism has declined by 65 per cent in Nigeria, 79 per cent in Syria and 95 per cent in Pakistan and Iraq, totaling $84.3 billion across the four countries.

“These four countries have largely contributed to the fall in the economic impact of terrorism”, the report reads.

In 2019, all four categories in the model decreased from the prior year.

This has resulted in the impact of terrorism declining by $8.7 billion, or 25 per cent from 2018.

The largest percentage decline was seen on the GDP losses category, which decreased by 31 per cent, or $4.2 billion from 2018.

This was followed by terrorism deaths, which decreased by 21 per cent, or $4.4 billion.

Since the peak in 2014, the impact of terrorism deaths has declined by 81 per cent, or $67.8 billion.

Deaths from terrorism were the largest category in the model at 61.2 per cent amounting to $16.2 billion in 2019.

This was followed by GDP losses at 35.2 per cent of the total, or $9.3 billion.

It however stated that economic impact of terrorism in Africa was $13 billion in 2019, representing a fifteen-fold increase since 2007.

The region’s share in the global economic impact of terrorism has thus increased from 3.1% in 2007 to 49.2% in 2019.

Globally, this impact is estimated at $ 26.4 billion as terrorism has cost the African continent $ 171.7 billion between 2007 and 2019.

Four African countries considered to be the epicenter of terrorism in the region suffered the majority of the economic impact in the period.

It is mainly Nigeria which suffers the greatest impact on the continent with an estimated cost of around $142 billion during this period.

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Next come Libya (about $ 4.9 billion), Somalia (about $ 1.16 billion), and Mali (about $ 1.13 billion).

These four countries alone account for about 86.8% (compared to about 8.3% for the rest of the continent) of the economic impact of terrorism in Africa over the period from 2007 to 2019, or about $ 149 billion, indicates the Global Terrorism Index 2020.

The full GTI score takes into account not only deaths, but also incidents, injuries, and property damage from terrorism, over a five-year period.

The largest fall in the impact of terrorism occurred in Afghanistan, which recorded 1,654 fewer deaths from terrorism in 2018, a 22.4 per cent decrease from the prior year.

However, Afghanistan remains the country most impacted by terrorism, after overtaking Iraq in 2018.

Nigeria recorded the second largest reduction in deaths from terrorism in 2019, with the number falling from 2,043 to 1,245, a 39.1 per cent reduction, which was mainly due to a fall in terrorism deaths attributed to Fulani extremists.

This reduction occurred despite a small increase in deaths attributed to Boko Haram, which has been the most active terrorist group in the country over the past decade.

The report indicates that deaths from terrorism in Nigeria are now 83 per cent lower than at their peak in 2014.

It however stated that conflict remains the primary driver of terrorism, with over 96 per cent of deaths from terrorism in 2019 occurring in countries already in conflict.

The ten countries with the highest impact of terrorism are all engaged in at least one armed conflict, the report reads.

Meanwhile, the report hinted that economic impact of terrorism dropped each year for the last five years.

It is now 77 per cent lower than at its peak in 2014.

In the report, Afghanistan is noted to be the country with the highest economic impact, equivalent to 16.7 per cent of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

Then, the index revealed that Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia have the highest regional economic impact, at US$12.5 and US$5.6 billion, respectively.

North America had the largest regional percentage increase in its economic impact, increasing by 44.9 per cent from the previous year, owing largely to an increase in far-right terrorism.

It stated that total deaths from terrorism in Nigeria fell to 1,245 in 2019, a 39 per cent decrease from the prior year.

The report indicates that terror-related incidents also fell by 27 per cent, marking the lowest level of terrorist violence in Nigeria since 2011.

This decline in terrorism deaths and incidents in Nigeria was driven by a significant reduction in violence attributed to Fulani extremists.

Despite an overall decline in terrorism, Boko Haram, Nigeria’s deadliest terrorist group, recorded an increase in terrorist activity mainly targeted at civilians.

Terror-related deaths and incidents attributed to Boko Haram in Nigeria increased by 25 and 30 per cent respectively from the prior year.

Over the past year Boko Haram increased attacks on military targets, with deaths rising from 26 in 2018 to 148 in 2019.

However, it revealed that the number of suicide bombings attributed to Boko Haram fell significantly for the second consecutive year.

In 2019, Boko Haram carried out 11 suicide bombings causing 68 fatalities.

Suicide bombings accounted for six per cent of all terror-related incidents by Boko Haram in 2019, marking an 89 per cent decline from their peak in 2017.

Boko Haram was also notorious for its use of female and child suicide bombers. However, since their peak in 2015, female suicide bombings have declined by 96 per cent.

In 2019, four female suicide bombers carried out two attacks, killing nine. Boko Haram was responsible for Nigeria’s deadliest terrorist attack in 2019 when assailants attacked a funeral in Badu, Borno State.

At least 70 people were killed and 10 others were wounded in the attack and ensuing clash.

GTI explained that the two main factions of Boko Haram, the Islamic State West African Province (ISWAP) and the followers of Abubakar Shekau, are both engaged in an insurgency campaign against the Nigerian government.

Since 2015, a multinational task force comprised of Cameroon, Chad and Niger assisted the Nigerian government in attacking territory held by Boko Haram.

It stated that violence by the two main factions of Boko Haram have taken a large toll on the civilian population, particularly in northeast Nigeria, where continued attacks have internally displaced more than two million people and caused a further 240,000 Nigerian refugees to flee to neighbouring countries.

In 2019, the report revealed that Fulani extremists were responsible for 26 per cent of terror-related deaths in Nigeria at 325 fatalities.

This was a 72 per cent fall from the prior year, while incidents declined by 62 per cent.

It said the Fulani extremists do not constitute a single terrorist group.

The report states that certain deaths within the ongoing conflict between pastoralists and the nomadic Fulani have been categorised as terrorism and attributed to extremist elements within the Fulani.

This categorisation is reflective of terrorism used as a tactic within an ongoing conflict, it added.

GTI then hinted that there are an estimated 14 million Fulani in Nigeria, with substantial populations also in Guinea, Senegal, Mali, and Cameroon.

It said the majority of terrorist activity related to Fulani extremists occurred in the states of Kaduna, Plateau and Benue.

Terrorist violence declined in most states in which Fulani extremists operate, except Kaduna which recorded a 77 per cent increase in terror-related deaths.

Of the 111 attacks attributed to Fulani extremists, over 59 were armed assaults.