Fitch Upgrades Congo’s Credit Rating, Cites Easing Refinancing Risks
Fitch Ratings has upgraded Congo’s long-term credit ratings, citing easing refinancing risks. The country’s Long-Term Local-Currency (LTLC) Issuer Default Rating (IDR) was upgraded to ‘CCC+’ from ‘CCC’.
Also, the Long-Term Foreign-Currency (LTFC) IDR was affirmed at ‘CCC+’.
According to Fitch, the upgrade of the LTLC IDR reflects improving regional market financing conditions and a smoother domestic repayment profile, which have reduced refinancing risks that had previously justified the differential relative to the LTFC IDR.
The affirmation of the LTFC IDR reflects weak public financial management (PFM), as evidenced by recurrent large arrears, high government debt, high oil dependence, and low governance scores.
Fitch said the rating is supported by reduced near-term rollover risks, improving growth prospects driven by expansion in the oil and gas sector, and steadily declining government debt, supported by fiscal surpluses.
Rating analysts said the upgrade of Congo’s LTLC IDR reflects the country’s smoother domestic repayment profile, with oil windfalls supporting fiscal performance and weak financial management amidst declining debt.
Congo’s liability management has reduced domestic debt repayments to 9% of GDP in 2026 from peaks of 13% in 2024 and 14% in 2025.
Fitch noted that the country’s financing conditions in the regional debt market have improved, as a stronger regional macroeconomic backdrop, driven by higher oil prices, has strengthened liquidity and Congo has relied more heavily on external borrowing via Eurobonds.
This has allowed Congo to markedly lengthen the tenors of LC issuance. Fitch analysts view this as reducing the risk of a rollover failure that would force another domestic default event, similar to an exchange in 2024 that we deemed a distressed debt exchange (DDE).
Total arrears began to decline in 1H26 after a buildup in 2025. “We expect external and domestic arrears to fall to 9.4% of GDP in 2026 from the 13.3% we estimated in 2025, driven by a fiscal surplus (on a commitment basis) and additional net borrowing from financial markets”.
Fitch said public financial management reforms now underway could help reduce the risk of further accumulation of arrears if implemented effectively.
The rating captured the country’s oil windfall, supporting the fiscal performance on the back of higher oil prices and volumes are expected to widen the fiscal surplus to 2% of GDP (on a commitment basis) in 2026 and drive a sharp fall in government debt, while narrowing the current account deficit and supporting the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (CEMAC) reserve accumulation this year. This oil windfall has underpinned both the sovereign’s capacity to pay down arrears and restore external market access, evidenced by two 2026 Eurobond issuances.
This windfall will likely be temporary under Fitch’s baseline oil projections, but it has provided a window for the sovereign and CEMAC to build up financial buffers to face a potential tightening of regional and external borrowing conditions.
Congo’s ‘CCC+’ IDRs also reflect a weak public financial market, which remains a core rating constraint, as illustrated by the 2024 DDE and large, albeit declining, arrears to external official creditors and domestic suppliers.
The PFM reforms target the root causes, but they will need to be implemented effectively over a sustained period before the underlying risks can be considered resolved.
Government debt remains very high, although Fitch expects a sharp decline to 80.9% of GDP in 2026, down from 92.1% at the end of 2025, driven by a large primary surplus and strong nominal GDP growth.
Even after the projected fall, the ratio would remain well above the ‘B’/’C’/’D’ median of 67.1% of GDP in 2026. Ratings analysts expect the pace of decline to slow sharply in 2027, as oil prices ease.
Fiscal and external accounts remain highly dependent on oil, exposing Congo to price volatility. Fitch analysts expect the current account deficit to narrow sharply to 0.1% of GDP in 2026 before widening again in 2027 as oil prices recede.
This means the recent rebound of CEMAC reserves, which analysts forecast to reach about USD 14 billion by the end of 2026 (4.7 months of import coverage), is likely to prove only temporary.
IMF Programme Expected: Congo requested a new IMF programme in April 2026, alongside other CEMAC members. Given Congo’s record under previous programmes, ratings analysts expect an agreement by year-end.
However, a final agreement also depends on the IMF receiving policy assurances from other CEMAC members, likely including a fiscal adjustment in Gabon.
“We expect disbursements on a new programme from 2027 but see limited scope for fiscal consolidation sufficient to ensure stability of CEMAC reserves”.
Fitch forecasts real GDP growth will rebound to 4.3% in 2026 from an estimated 2.7% in 2025, led by rising oil production, which is projected to reach 293 thousand barrels per day (kbpd) in 2026 from 271 kbpd in 2025, following the opening of new wells.
Non-oil growth should also strengthen, supported by fewer power cuts, a rebound in public investment and a surge in gas output from the second phase of the ENI Congo LNG project, before overall growth eases in 2027 as these one-off supports fade. Gabon’s Revised 2026 Budget Leaves Deficit High, Financing Uncertain -Fitch
