Airtel Africa: Analysts Raise Target Price, See 70% Upside
Equity analysts updated estimates on Airtel Africa Plc signal that investors are open to 70% upside potential for holding the telecommunication company stock at the current price of N2310.50.
In an equity note, analysts at Cordros Securities Limited updated target price (TP) to N3,930.47 per share for a telecom stock trading between 52-week high of N2,372.50 and 52-week low of N2,156.90.
Data from the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) showed that Airtel Africa share price has remained unchanged at N2310.50 even after the telecom bumper Q1 earnings harvest. Airtel Africa Plc.’s 3.758 billion shares outstanding in the local bourse were valued at N8.683 trillion amidst paltry trading activity on the telecom company.
In its regulatory filing, Airtel Africa reported that its profit before tax grew by about 269% year on year $273 million during the quarter ended 30 June 2025 as compared to $74 million in the prior period.
The company said higher profit before tax was supported by higher operating profit and derivative and foreign exchange gains of $22 million compared to $136 million derivative and foreign exchange losses in the prior period.
The telecom group revenue increased by 22.4% to $1,415 million in the period, boosted by improved performance across mobile services (23.8%), data (38.1%) and voice segments (13.9%).
Airtel Africa revealed that tariff adjustments in Nigeria and a continued improvement in Francophone Africa revenue growth bolstered the group performance in the period. Following the release of its first quarter financial scorecards, analysts at Cordros Securities Limited said they have updated their estimate in line of the development.
Analysts noted a sharp earnings per share increase of 18.32x year on year and then raise target price by 11.7% to N3,930.47/s from N3,519.61/s and maintain our “BUY” recommendation.
“The upward revision to our valuation is driven by a 173bps year on year uplift in our EBITDA margin forecast to 47.9%, underpinned by an anticipated 21.0% increase in revenue — supported by sustained pricing momentum and modest currency translation gains in select markets — relative to projected total expense growth of 17.0%”.
Analysts at Cordros Securities Limited now forecast an earnings per share of USD0.18 an increase of 205.7% year on year and total dividend per share of USD0.09, implying a 6.5% dividend yield.
“We project aggregate revenue growth of 21.0% year on year, primarily driven by an upward revision to our Francophone Africa forecast, supported by favourable currency movements in the region”.
Based on its assumptions, analysts revised average revenue per users for Nigeria market to settle at USD2.38, a downward revision from USD2.55. East Africa ARPU is anticipated to drop to USD2.10 from USD2.12.
At the segment level, the investment firm expects broad-based expansion across all major revenue lines—data, mobile money, voice and other. Cordros Securities Limited highlighted that the growth is underpinned by a 6.8% year on year expansion in the total customer base to 177.66 million
Breakdown showed that data subscribers grew by +10.7% to 81.28 million, mobile money subscribers increased by 8.8% to 48.54 million alongside a blended ARPU of USD2.47.
“We now estimate a 173bps year on year expansion in EBITDA margin to 48.0%, driven by stronger revenue growth that more than offsets the upward adjustment to total expense growth forecast.
“We also anticipate a 6.5% year on year reduction in finance costs, supported by a more stable currency environment in operating regions. Overall, we forecast EPS growth of 205.7% year on year to USD0.18”, the firm said.
Analysts said Airtel Africa return on equity (ROE) recovery expected to outpace historical trend. “We view 2026 as a clear inflection point for AIRTELAFRI, with return on equity projected to recover to 21.2%, well above the recent troughs of -3.9% in 2024”.
In 2025, return on equity printed at 11.8%. Analysts at Cordros Securities Limited said the projection for FY2026 is comfortably exceeds five-year average of 12.1%.
The investment firm expects ROE to average 23.6% between 2026 and 2030, marking a structural uplift in capital efficiency. The recovery is anchored by robust topline growth, EBITDA margin gains, reduced FX-related losses, and a sharp rebound in net profitability.
Analysts at Airtel Africa expressed view that these tailwinds positions AIRTELAFRI to restore shareholder returns to levels not seen since its peak years, reinforcing our positive medium-term outlook. #Airtel Africa: Analysts Raise Target Price, See 70% Upside# Banks Borrowings Increase as CBN FX Settlement Gulps Liquidity
