“Wahala”: Nigeria Falls to 18th Position in Where to Invest in Africa
Nigeria has dropped to 8th position in Rand Merchant Bank’s (RMB) where to invest in Africa index (WTIIA) report for 2025/2026 which offered fresh insights into the continent’s top investment prospects.
RMB said, “The country’s precipitous fall from 9th to 18th in the WTIIA rankings suggests that the term ‘wahala’ has been used liberally over the last year.”
WTIIA provides a clear view of the factors shaping each country’s investment landscape, helping investors and policymakers identify where the greatest opportunities for growth and impact lie.
“Over the past year, Africa’s investment landscape has been shaped by significant political and policy developments. Elections across multiple countries, episodes of unrest and policy uncertainty, and the global fracturing and reorientation have all had measurable macroeconomic effects.
“Changes in the political and the subsequent policy environment and declining foreign aid, coupled with the redirection of global capital flows, are reshaping how African economies engage with the world, moving from dependence toward resilience and self-determination,” says Isaah Mhlanga, Chief Economist at RMB.
Against this backdrop, the 2025/26 report explores the theme “From aid to investment and trade”, reflecting a broader transition underway across the continent. As traditional aid models give way, new opportunities are emerging for partnerships driven by investment and commerce.
“In this evolving landscape, African nations are redefining their growth trajectories, prioritising sustainable development, regional collaboration and private-sector participation as key drivers of progress.
It said top five countries remain unchanged from 2024/25. The small island economies of Seychelles and Mauritius retain their rankings of first and second place, with their scores reflecting small but appealing markets.
The significantly larger economies of Egypt, South Africa and Morocco remain ranked in third, fourth and fifth places, respectively.
In contrast to the top five countries, which remained stable from last year, there are a few that experienced significant shifts both up and down the rankings: Nigeria, Mozambique, Côte d’Ivoire, Zambia and Senegal.
Nigeria is the biggest mover, dropping nine places from ninth in the previous edition to 18th in this year’s index. But RMB added that Nigeria’s outlook remains positive. It said Nigeria’s decline in ranking to 18th in this year’s index is driven by the right reasons and requires contextualisation.
The ranking reflects a high score in terms of economic performance and potential, but the pillars that are influenced by currency devaluation had a disproportionate impact.
This decline largely reflects short-term adjustments linked to necessary economic reforms, including the transition to a more flexible currency and efforts to manage fuel subsidies better.
While these measures created temporary volatility, they represent important steps towards a more sustainable and market-responsive economy. The rebasing of GDP and CPI has also provided a clearer picture of Nigeria’s economic fundamentals.
With the IMF forecasting growth of between 3.0% and 3.3%, there is reason for optimism as the country continues to strengthen its reform agenda and unlock new growth potential. This is akin to the drowsiness due to taking the necessary medicine over the short term that ultimately leads to a healthy and full recovery.
“Wahala” is a word rich with meaning in Nigerian culture. A strict translation as “trouble”, “problem”, or “difficulty” in English loses much of the word’s cultural dimension. Its meaning in conversation varies with tone and context.
“The country’s precipitous fall from 9th to 18th in the WTIIA rankings suggests that the term “wahala” has been used liberally over the last year.
“The move to a more flexible currency and the attempted reining in of fuel subsidies have caused their share of economic pain, including inflation, for Africa’s most populous country. However, the IMF growth forecast of between 3.0% and 3.3% to 2029 suggests panic is undue,” RMB said. FCMB Group Forecasts N62.55 billion Profit for Q1-2026
