US Has 20% Chance of Going Into Recession in 12 Months – Goldman Sachs
The US economy is still poised for a soft landing, Goldman Sachs said in a brief amidst expectations of Fed Rate Cut for the rest of 2024.
In its latest brief, the investment firm said there’s a 20% chance of a US recession over the next 12 months.
“That figure is unchanged from our economists’ estimate before last week’s US jobs report for employment in August”, writes Goldman Sachs Research Chief Economist Jan Hatzius.
” The recession probability is now halfway between the 15% our economists estimated just before the weaker-than-expected July jobs report and the 25% they estimated right after”.
While last week’s jobs data fell modestly short of expectations, it showed a rebound from the previous month and a small dip in the unemployment rate to 4.2%, Goldman Sachs said.
Most other recent economic indicators — including the non manufacturing ISM, initial jobless claims, and personal consumption — have been solid.
Goldman Sachs Research’s US GDP tracking estimate for the third quarter remains at 2.5%, according to the brief
Also, Goldman Sachs Research continues to expect three Federal Reserve rate cuts of 25 basis points each at the remaining Federal Open Market Committee meetings this year.
“Our confidence that the upcoming cut on September 18 will be modest in size has grown following the latest data, as well as Fed commentary just before the start of the blackout period emphasizing that ‘cuts will be done carefully,’” Hatzius writes. #US Has 20% Chance of Going Into Recession in 12 Months – Goldman Sachs
