US Energy Agency Upgrades Brent Price Forecast for 2025
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has slightly revised up its 2025 Brent crude oil price forecast, despite the expectations of rising global inventories.
Average Brent crude oil price for this year is expected to be $65.97 per barrel, up from the previous forecast of $65.85, according to the EIA’s Short- Term Energy Outlook (STEO) released late Tuesday.
The outlook for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude has also been revised up, from $61.81 to $62.33 per barrel.
The EIA’s “June 2025 Short-Term Energy Outlook Report” indicated a fourth consecutive month of declining oil prices in May, attributable to a combination of factors, including a slowdown in global oil demand growth and an uptick in global oil inventories, driven by heightened production by the OPEC+ group.
It is estimated that global oil supply will exceed consumption, leading to an increase in stocks and downward pressure on prices. Stocks, which have grown in the first five months of the year, are expected to increase by an average of 800,000 barrel per day (bpd) throughout the year. This increase is due to a decline in demand in OECD countries and an increase in supply from OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ nations.
In the second half of the year, with global oil supply expected to slow down due to relatively flat supply in the US, the world’s largest oil producer, and global oil demand increasing, it is expected that stockpiles will decline to an average of 600,000 bpd in 2026, indicating a trend toward market equilibrium.
The EIA announced that the average price of Brent crude oil next year will be $59.24 per barrel, while the average price of WTI crude oil will be $55.58 per barrel.
However, the report indicates that the uncertainty surrounding price forecasts remains. Risks such as forest fires in Canada, the Russia-Ukraine war, potential export disruptions in Libya, and production coordination by the OPEC+ group continue to loom. US trade policies and sanctions targeting Iran, Russia, and Venezuela are also among the factors that could influence oil prices.
– US crude production forecast revised up
The EIA projects that average daily crude oil production in the US will reach approximately 13.42 million barrels in 2025, higher than the previous year’s forecast of 13.21 million barrels.
Next year, the US’s average daily crude oil production is expected to be 13.37 million barrels. On the other hand, global oil supply is expected to average 104.35 million bpd this year, while global oil consumption is expected to reach 103.53 million bpd.
In 2026, global supply is expected to average 105.14 million bpd, while consumption is expected to reach 104.58 million bpd. #US Energy Agency Upgrades Brent Price Forecast for 2025#
