Oil prices Rise Sharply in 1-Week over Israel, Iran Conflict
The prices of crude oil rose sharply over a week as Israel and Iran conflict stoke pressure on supply from the Middle East. Crude oil prices surged 11% over the past week ending June 19, as geopolitical tensions reached new heights.
Brent crude’s spot price rose from a closing level of $69.65 per barrel on June 12—the day before Israel launched attacks on Iranian targets—to $77.32 by June 19. The US benchmark, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), also climbed 11% during the same period.
Markets reacted sharply after Israel launched a series of strikes on June 13, initially pushing Brent up to $76.31 before it settled at $73.67. Iran responded over the weekend with ballistic missile attacks, and both sides targeted several energy-related facilities, though no major supply outages have been reported.
Prices remained volatile throughout the week. On June 16, Brent reached $74.56 but closed lower at $72.13 following reports that Iran remained open to nuclear negotiations. A renewed surge followed on June 17 after US President Donald Trump’s call to evacuate Tehran, with Brent rising to $75.74 before closing at $75.69.
Brent continued its climb, reaching $76.13 and closing at $75.12 on June 18, before peaking at $77.52 on June 19 and settling at $77.32. Despite recent gains, Brent remains below its 2024 average of $80 per barrel.
“As the conflict has progressed from last week well into the current week, it has become a bit of a tug of war between bearish and bullish traders,” Gaurav Sharma, an independent oil market analyst, told Anadolu.
Sharma noted that oil prices are currently seeking a new equilibrium. Despite heightened geopolitical tensions, there remains ample crude supply on the global market, especially of light sweet crude, he said.
“If this conflict were happening 10 years ago, we would be seeing oil prices hit $100. That they aren’t is because market participants know there is a lot of non-Middle Eastern or non-OPEC oil out in the market,” he said.
In a social media post last Friday, International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol said that “markets are well supplied,” while the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) stated that there were “no developments in supply or market dynamics that warrant unnecessary measures.”
While no physical supply losses have occurred yet, the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz remains the biggest concern. The narrow waterway at the mouth of the Persian Gulf handles nearly 15 million barrels of crude oil daily, around one-third of global seaborne oil trade.
Still, energy consultancy Rystad Energy warned that “a potential blockage of the Strait of Hormuz remains the most important market-moving event to watch for, which could tip oil markets into unprecedented territory.”
Looking ahead, Sharma said: “If the current geopolitical crisis persists or worsens, the market will have to recalibrate to a new normal around $80. However, if tensions or the conflict are quickly diffused, we could see a drop to $70 or below as or when more normalized market fundamentals kick in once again.” Tunisia’s Central Bank Keeps Key Interest Rate at 7.5%
