Oil Posts Weekly Price Upticks on Growing Demand Optimism
Oil prices surged week on week on positive demand expectations as the US government reopened, while China and India dumped Russian oil following the latest sanctions.
The price surge was supported by the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) upward revision to global demand forecasts, easing concerns over a prolonged US government shutdown, and ongoing geopolitical risks stemming from the Russia-Ukraine war.
International benchmark Brent crude traded at $64.13 per barrel, up 0.91% from last Friday’s close of $63.55. US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was at $60.06 per barrel, rising around 1.53% compared with $59.15 last week.
Prices initially gained on Monday amid growing optimism that the 40-day US government shutdown could soon end. Progress in congressional negotiations eased concerns about disruptions to air travel, a key driver of seasonal fuel demand during the winter holiday period.
However, gains were limited through midweek by persistent worries about potential oversupply next year, largely linked to production policies of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, known as OPEC+.
The group’s earlier decision to raise output and its plan to pause further increases only in the first quarter continued to fuel expectations of a supply-heavy market.
Meanwhile, uncertainty surrounding the impact of US sanctions on Russian oil majors Rosneft and Lukoil also weighed on prices. Analysts noted that any short-term disruptions to Russian flows would likely be offset by broader supply risks.
Rising US commercial crude inventories and the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) projections for stronger US output added further pressure.
EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook pointed to continued growth in global supply, while demand growth remained comparatively weak. OPEC’s latest report showed the group’s crude oil production increasing by 33,000 barrels per day (bpd) in October to 28.46 million bpd.
Oil rebounded on Friday after the IEA raised its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast and reported a decline in global output in October.
The agency now expects consumption to rise by around 790,000 bpd next year, supported by stronger outlooks for the US, China and Nigeria. A 440,000 bpd drop in global supply, including a sharp 520,000 bpd fall in OPEC+ output led by Kazakhstan, also supported prices.
Geopolitical risks provided additional support to prices as Ukraine struck several Russian military and energy-linked targets, while markets assessed the implications of US and European sanctions on Russian crude flows.
Oil prices ended the week on a firmer footing, though concerns over excess supply and mixed demand signals remain central to market sentiment in the coming weeks. First Holdco Dips Below N1.3trn Amidst Huge Trading Volume
