Nvidia’s $3bn Meta Bet Exposes Major AI Unknown
Nvidia’s $3 billion share purchase from Meta, one of its biggest customers, is a fresh red flag for the circular AI economy, and it brings the boom’s biggest unanswered question into the open: who ultimately pays for AI.
Comments from Nigel Green, CEO of global financial advisory giant deVere Group, come as Meta moves to raise up to $95 billion through equity offerings to fund its AI spending, with Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom agreeing to buy up to $5 billion in shares between them.
He says: “Chipmakers are now buying shares in the companies that buy their chips. The money goes out as an investment and comes back as sales. This is the circular AI economy, and it’s getting bigger.
“Each of these deals can be justified on its own. Together, they blur how much AI demand comes from customers spending their own money and how much is being funded inside the industry.
“Sooner or later, someone outside the circle has to pick up the bill.”
Meta is starting with $35 billion of underwritten offerings, with a further $60 billion at-the-market sale that won’t begin until early 2027.
In return for Nvidia’s backing, Meta plans to expand its use of Nvidia processors and networking products, while its projected 2026 capital expenditure sits at $135 billion to $145 billion.
Nigel Green says: “Spending on this scale has to be paid back, and the obvious question is by whom. “Businesses are likely to pay, up to a point, where AI clearly delivers better results, lower costs or faster growth.
“Consumers are a different matter. Most people are happy to use AI and very reluctant to pay for it, and so far there’s little sign of that changing.”
The pattern stretches well beyond one deal. Nvidia put $100 billion into OpenAI in 2025, and it has since taken stakes in Anthropic, xAI and long-established rival Intel. It has joined 121 funding rounds so far this year, up from 13 in 2022.
He continues: “It’s an astonishing pace. A company with a dominant grip on AI hardware is spreading its capital across the businesses that depend on it.
“Done well, this speeds up innovation. It also ties their fortunes tightly together, so trouble at one could quickly become trouble for several.”
The way the boom is financed is shifting too. AI-related debt across Big Tech had doubled to $350 billion by July, and Alphabet unveiled an $80 billion equity plan in June, including $10 billion from Berkshire Hathaway.
Nigel Green noted: Spending is running well ahead of anyone’s ability to show who the paying customer will be.”
The deVere CEO is clear about where he believes AI is heading.
“AI is likely to transform how the world works and, in the long run, it’s going to win. The bigger question for investors is what happens before then.
“Booms like this rarely move in a straight line. We believe there’s likely to be a period where spending gets reined in, valuations reset and weaker business models are found out, before the strongest players pull clear.
“The companies that come out on top are likely to be those with paying customers outside the circle, mainly businesses getting measurably better results.” Wall Street, FTSE 100 Surge as AI Shares Gain Momentum
