MTN Nigeria Hits All-Time High, Analysts See 44% Upside Potential
The market value of MTN Nigeria Plc reached its all-time high in the equities segment of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) as investors increased bets on the telecom company ahead of the second quarter of financial year 2025 earnings release.
The telecommunication firm’s stock price rose by roughly 10.5% over the week, starting at N357.50 and ending at N395, marking its peak value in a year.
Transactions details obtained from the Nigerian Exchange revealed that MTN Nigeria Plc climbed to N395 per share on Friday as 2.222 million units valued at N885.593 million were traded in the local bourse.
The significant trading volume and value pushed the market value of MTN Nigeria Plc’s 20.995 billion shares outstanding to N8.293 trillion as investors anticipate sustained earnings recovery. A slew of analysts have projected a positive outlook for telecom operators following tariff adjustments by the regulator earlier in the year.
In its stock recommendation note, equities analysts at Cowry Asset Limited have updated their estimate and set N568.80 as MTN Nigeria’s 12-month price target, which translates to 44% upside potential.
Analysts believe that escalating data consumption and the rapid rollout of 5G networks support the industry earnings projections and rebound from the downturn fueled by the devaluation of the naira.
Due to MTN Nigeria’s huge market share, analysts said the telco will benefit from higher average data usage, which is expected to rise by another 10–15% in H2 2025, as consumers increase engagement with video, gaming, social media, and e-learning platforms.
“We expect Nigerian mobile subscriptions to continue growing into H2 2025, albeit from a high base. Recent data shows active mobile lines around 172.9 million by Apr 2025, and we expect roughly 8–9% annual growth through the next three years”, Zedcrest said in its mid-year outlook.
MTN Nigeria was able to reduce its exposure to FX liabilities and renegotiate tower lease contracts. This is expected to boost its profit margin in the absence of huge FX losses that had damaged its balance sheet as a result of accumulated losses.
Recalled that MTN Group has it in plan to reduce its stake in its Nigeria subsidiary through a public offering when the latter returns to a positive equity position and dividend payments.
Industry Outlook
According to recent data from the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), active mobile subscriptions rose slightly by 530,396—a modest year-on-year increase of 0.31%—from 172.14 million in May 2024 to 172.67 million in May 2025.
However, on a month-on-month basis, the sector recorded a slight contraction. Active subscriptions declined by 276,375, or 0.16%, from 172.95 million in April 2025 to 172.67 million in May.
“In our view, this month-on-month decline reflects short-term fluctuations that are not uncommon in the telecom sector. Such movements typically result from a combination of seasonal patterns, economic pressures, and technical or operational factors.
“We expect the recovery in mobile subscriptions to gain momentum in the coming months, despite the recent monthly decline, as many previously deactivated lines are reconnected”, CSL Stockbrokers Limited said in a note.
Nigeria’s large and growing population remains a key driver of sector growth, with a significant portion of the population still lacking access to basic telecom services. The firm said its 2025 outlook for the telecommunications industry remains positive.
The sector is well positioned for sustained recovery and long-term expansion, supported by several key trends: ongoing subscriber reactivation, recent tariff adjustments, the rapid rollout of 4G and 5G networks, rising broadband penetration, and the continued shift from analog to digital services.
These developments are making Nigeria’s telecom industry increasingly resilient and attractive for investment, offering strong potential for medium- to long-term returns. #MTN Nigeria Hits All-Time High, Analysts See 44% Upside Potential Oil Prices Edge Higher as Weak Dollar Drives Demand
