Global Credit Resilience to Face Major Tests in 2026 – Fitch
Global credit begins 2026 with a generally benign outlook, despite lacklustre economic conditions and significant uncertainties that will keep risks elevated. Fitch Ratings expects the credit resilience seen in 2025 to continue.
According to Fitch, the AI investment boom, which counterbalanced negative economic pressures, especially in the US, and underpinned highly favourable funding and liquidity conditions shows little sign of slowing, even as concerns about the risk of malinvestment and over-extended valuations have grown.
It said fiscal support in major economies including the US and China, and a return to neutral from restrictionist monetary policies in the US, and Europe will also cushion the economy and investor risk sentiment.
Fitch said positive and negative rating outlooks remain roughly balanced, as has been the case since the beginning of 2024.
In addition, the rating agency said most of its 2026 sector and asset performance outlooks are ‘neutral’ reflecting expectations for no significant changes to most sectors’ core credit drivers or asset performance.
However, this obscures a much more nuanced credit outlook. Fitch said over a fifth of its 2026 sector outlooks are ‘deteriorating’.
It noted that negative themes include continued trade and investment pressures from US tariffs, US consumer challenges, and an accelerating downturn in private domestic demand in China.
Many deep uncertainties from last year remain, including fundamental disruptions to US policy, the AI revolution, persistent geopolitical risks, structural fiscal pressures and the shift in lending to private credit.
Fitch said there are also emerging risks from China’s private investment contraction, overheating in the US from a confluence of fiscal and monetary stimulus and inflationary pressures, and a sharper fall in oil prices beyond our base case.
“A significant widening of bond spreads, tightening of credit conditions or re-appraisal of our economic outlook caused by a shock driven by any of these uncertainties could lead us to re-evaluate our credit outlook,” Fitch said. First HoldCo Extends Rally on Strategic Divestment, Closes at Record High
