Fitch-Rated Corporates’ CFO to Grow 6% to USD3.3trn in 2026
Cash flow from operations (CFO) for Fitch Ratings’ global portfolio of non-financial corporate entities will increase by 6% to USD3.3 trillion in 2026, Fitch says in its inaugural Global Corporates Cash Flow Monitor.
Growth will be driven by a 3% increase in aggregate revenue, stronger funds from operations (FFO) and broadly stable working capital. We expect aggregate capex to be largely unchanged from 2025, at USD2.3 trillion in 2026.
However, Fitch analysts expect a slight decline in dividend payments. This will lead to aggregate free cash flow (FCF), after capex and dividends, rebounding to USD150 billion in 2026 from negative USD50 billion in 2025.
Fitch’s new semi-annual Global Corporates Cash Flow Monitor examines the generation and use of FFO for a portfolio of over 1,500 Fitch-rated non-financial corporate issuers.
Historical and projected data is provided on a sector and aggregate portfolio basis with trends in capital investment and shareholder remuneration since 2019.
Fitch said its rated global corporates have allocated on average about two thirds of aggregate FFO to capex in 2019-2026. This ratio has fluctuated, falling to 56%-57% in 2021-2022 from 65%-70% in 2019-2020 as corporates cut capex in the wake of the pandemic.
Investment rebounds mean we expect a ratio of around 70% in 2025-2026. We anticipate a moderate decline of dividends payments to 24% of FFO in 2026, compared with 25% since 2019.
Cash spent on M&A has been more volatile than capex and dividends since 2019, reaching 16% of FFO in 2021 (vs just over 5% in 2020 during the pandemic) as corporates took advantage of low valuations and favourable funding conditions to make acquisitions.
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