Burundi Economy Improves, Inflation Sinks to 8.6% from 45% – IMF
Burundi’s economic conditions improved in 2025, with growth reaching 4.2 per cent on the back of stronger coffee and gold exports, while inflation fell sharply from 45 per cent in April 2025 to 8.6 per cent in April 2026, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in an official statement following the conclusion of the Article IV consultation.
The Fund said Still, Burundi remains a fragile post-conflict country facing weak institutions, widespread poverty, and spillovers from conflict in neighbouring DRC.
External vulnerabilities remain elevated: the current account deficit is large, reserves cover only 1.6 months of imports, and the official exchange rate appears significantly overvalued despite a narrower parallel market premium.
In January 2026, the authorities adopted a Macroeconomic Stabilisation Plan focused on fiscal consolidation, tighter monetary policy, FX reforms, and structural reforms in key sectors.
IMF noted that the country’s monetary policy has tightened, with central bank financing of the government frozen, slowing money growth and reducing excess liquidity, though private sector credit has weakened.
Burundi’s fiscal policy has also tightened, supported by spending restraint and improved tax collection, but risks persist from revenue shortfalls, weak investment execution, arrears, and high domestic financing needs.
The country’s public debt declined from 53 percent of GDP in 2024 to 42 percent in 2025. While debt is assessed as sustainable, Burundi remains at high risk of external and overall debt distress given ongoing vulnerabilities.
The outlook remains broadly positive despite the war in the Middle East, with growth projected at 3.9 percent in 2026 and averaging 4.3 percent over 2027–31, supported by electrification, agriculture, mining, investment, and structural labor shifts.
The near-term impact of the war is expected to be limited, reflecting favorable terms of trade and low global trade integration. Inflation is projected to rise to 14.5 percent in 2026 before easing to 11.5 percent by 2031.
External balances are expected to improve, driven by stronger agriculture and mining exports, while FDI related to electrification supports the financial account and raises reserves to 2.8 months of imports by 2031.
A tighter fiscal stance is projected to reduce public debt to 32 percent of GDP by 2031. Risks are tilted to the downside in the near term, including fiscal slippages ahead of the 2027 elections and external shocks from weaker export prices or higher fuel and fertilizer costs.
Executive Directors agreed with the thrust of the staff appraisal, welcomed the improved economic conditions and commended the authorities for adopting the Macroeconomic Stabilisation Plan.
IMF Directors noted the broadly positive economic outlook, although risks are tilted to the downside. In this context, the IMF emphasised that sustained fiscal prudence, monetary policy tightening, and Foreign Exchange (FX) reforms are crucial to achieving macroeconomic stabilisation and boosting inclusive growth.
Burundi’s engagement with the Fund, including through capacity development and other partners, also remains key, the statement reads.
IMF Directors welcomed the ongoing fiscal consolidation and the discontinuation of monetary financing. While acknowledging the authorities’ ambitious medium-term fiscal framework, Directors supported a more gradual debt-reduction path that preserves priority social and development spending.
They underscored the importance of stronger domestic revenue mobilisation and of reallocating expenditure toward social sectors and infrastructure spending. Enhancing fiscal transparency and SOEs governance and strengthening public financial and debt management remain critical to mitigate fiscal risks.
The IMF urged the authorities to tighten the monetary policy stance and actively manage liquidity to strengthen monetary transmission and lay the groundwork for FX reforms.
Emphasis was placed on the importance of continued, coordinated policy actions to anchor inflation expectations and support disinflation and external adjustment.
Directors concurred that advancing FX reforms remains critical for macroeconomic stability. Noting the favourable environment, they encouraged the authorities to advance FX reforms through a well-sequenced and tailored roadmap for a unified and flexible FX regime.
IMF noted that the banking sector appears broadly resilient, while vulnerabilities warrant vigilance. They encouraged the authorities to conduct an asset quality review, strengthen supervision, and advance AML/CFT compliance. Implementation of the Safeguards Assessment recommendations is also important.
Directors highlighted that advancing structural and governance reforms remains essential to achieving sustainable and inclusive growth. In this regard, reforms in agriculture, mining, and electricity sectors will play a critical role.
Furthermore, Directors underscored that governance reforms are central to unlocking Burundi’s growth potential and encouraged the authorities to draw on the 2024 Governance Diagnostic Assessment to prepare and implement a governance action plan.
IMF said addressing data gaps should also remain a priority. It is expected that the next Article IV consultation with Burundi will be held on the standard 12 month cycle. AfDB Grants Burundi Over $13m to Tackle Climate Change Impacts
