Bitcoin Retakes $80k Price Range Ahead of US Fed Rate Policy
Bitcoin (BTC) price rebounded 0.90% to $80,729.28 on Wednesday, closely tracking a 0.94% rise in the total crypto market cap as investors returned to position ahead of Fed rate decision.
BTC price change of 0.90% nearly matched the total crypto market’s gain of 0.94%. More significantly, correlation data shows a 90.6% link with the S&P 500 and a 92.1% link with Gold over the same period.
This indicates the move was not coin-specific but part of a broader, macro-driven shift in asset prices as markets positioned ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision.
Bitcoin is currently trading as a macro asset, with its short-term direction heavily influenced by traditional market sentiment and liquidity expectations rather than internal crypto catalysts.
Investors are monitoring the Fed’s policy statement and any shifts in rate expectations on October 28, which will likely dictate near-term direction for correlated assets.
After two sessions of net outflows totaling $773.4 million, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a $110.34 million net inflow on October 26, entirely from BlackRock’s IBIT.
Concurrently, perpetual futures open interest rose 9.8% and the average funding rate jumped 72.6%, signaling renewed long positioning.
While ETF demand remains narrow (confined to one fund), the inflow halt provided a psychological floor. The derivatives rebound suggests traders are cautiously re-entering long positions, adding momentum to the macro-driven bounce.
The immediate catalyst is the Federal Reserve’s decision on October 28. Technically, Bitcoin is testing the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $80,755, with immediate support at the recent swing low of $79,380.
If the Fed’s tone is neutral and Bitcoin holds above $79,500, the next significant resistance is the supply zone near $82,500 where Bitfinex estimates 874,000 BTC were accumulated.
A break below $79,380 invalidates the bounce and risks a move toward the $77,500 support area. The near-term bias is cautiously bullish within a defined range, contingent on macro policy and holding key technical levels.
Traders said Bitcoin’s modest gain reflects its role as a macro asset, lifted by traditional market movements and supported by a pause in ETF outflows. The path forward hinges on the Fed’s policy signal and Bitcoin’s ability to defend the $79,500 support.
CryptoQuant’s latest weekly report indicates that the buying pressure in the Bitcoin market remains insufficient. Its on-chain metric measuring demand has been negative for 12 consecutive days.
Meanwhile, Coinbase’s Bitcoin price remained below Binance’s throughout the first 25 days of October, reflecting relatively weak buying interest in the U.S. market.
The average unrealized profit of holders with coins held for 1 to 3 months narrowed from 33.4% on September 22 to 8.1% on October 26.
However, CryptoQuant’s bull market score remains at 60 points, with 6 out of 10 indicators still bullish. The report suggests the current phase is closer to a ‘bull market cooling’ rather than a definitive shift into a bear market.
Bitcoin Falls Below $80k Ahead of Federal Reserve Rate Decision
