US Dollar Rises Ahead of FOMC Announcement
The US dollar rose against its major trading partners early Wednesday, except for a decline versus the yen, as markets turn their attention to the Federal Open Market Committee’s meeting announcement.
The CME’s FedWatch Tool sees a 99.5% chance of no change to the current 4.25% to 4.50% target range for the federal funds rate and a 0.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate reduction to a range of 4.00% to 4.25%.
The dollar snapped back higher across the board late yesterday as Trump revamped the relatively dormant theme of universal tariffs. The FT first reported that new Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is pushing for a gradual rise in universal tariffs starting from 2.5%, and potentially up to 20%.
Trump later said that he wants “much bigger” tariffs than 2.5% and is considering targeted duties on products like steel, copper and semiconductors.
Earlier Wednesday, the Mortgage Bankers Association said mortgage applications declined in the week Jan. 24 despite the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate holding steady from the previous week at 7.02%.
A quick summary of foreign exchange activity heading into Wednesday showed USDEUR fell to 1.0399 from 1.0432 at the Tuesday US close and 1.0425 at the same time Tuesday morning.
Eurozone private sector loan growth accelerated in December on a year-over-year basis, as did business loans, data released overnight showed. The next European Central Bank meeting is scheduled for Thursday, when a 25 basis point rate reduction is expected.
GBPUSD fell to 1.2418 from 1.2442 at the Tuesday US close and 1.2429 at the same time Tuesday morning. There are no UK data on Wednesday’s schedule, but Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey is due to speak today. The next Bank of England meeting is scheduled for Feb. 6.
USDJPY fell to 155.3880 from 155.5047 at the Tuesday US close and 155.3991 at the same time Tuesday morning. Japanese household confidence declined in January according to data released overnight. The next Bank of Japan meeting is scheduled for March 18-19.
USDCAD rose to 1.4427 from 1.4397 at the Tuesday US close and 1.4416 at the same time Tuesday morning. The Bank of Canada is expected to lower its policy rate by 25 basis points Wednesday, with its post-meeting statement due to be released. There are no Canadian data on Wednesday’s schedule.
The currency market has followed the stabilisation in tech stock sentiment, and today’s focus will shift to central bank meetings.
Analysts don’t think the Fed’s conditions for a dovish tilt have been met, and USD can firm up on a hold today. Elsewhere, expect well-telegraphed 25bp cuts by the Bank of Canada and Riksbank. #US Dollar Rises Ahead of FOMC Announcement IAS 29: Nigeria Not Hyperinflation Economy – Financial Reporting Council
