UAE Debt Capital Market to Surpass USD350 billion in 2026
Fitch Ratings expects the UAE debt capital market (DCM) to continue to grow, surpassing USD350 billion in 2026 and USD400 billion over the next few years.
The projection is expected to be driven by funding-diversification plans, cross-sector financing needs, regulatory reforms, and dirham monetary framework.
Fitch forecasts lower oil prices of USD63/bbl for 2026 and 2027, saying further Fed rate cuts could drive issuance.
The UAE should remain amongst the largest debt issuers in emerging markets (EM), along with sukuk issuers globally, amid a robust Islamic finance ecosystem.
“UAE’s DCM saw record high sukuk issuance in 2025, the highest-ever annual issuance. Dollar sukuk issuance rose to about 50% of dollar issuance, also the highest on record and up from 21.4% in 2024”, said Bashar Al Natoor, Fitch’s Global Head of Islamic Finance.
“Over 85% of Fitch-rated sukuk in the UAE are investment-grade, with 100% of issuers on Stable Outlooks and no defaults. The market saw many debut sukuk issuers.”
In EMs (ex-China), the UAE ranked the fifth-largest dollar debt issuer, at 7%. Many UAE issuers in 2025 and so far in 2026 maintained strong market access despite regional and global volatilities.
The UAE’s DCM surpassed USD325 billion outstanding at end-2025, up 9.3% year on year. The UAE saw the emergence of digitally native notes, along with retail and fractional sukuk, which could improve settlement efficiencies and diversify the investor base.
Fitch said new rules by the Higher Shariah Authority on asset transfers did not hinder sukuk.
Dollar sukuk issuance in 2025 surged by over 130% in the UAE, while dollar bond issuance fell by 36%. The UAE was the second-largest dollar sukuk issuer and the third-largest ESG sukuk issuer globally in 2025.
The ratings firm said UAE debt capital market is sensitive to oil-price movements, interest-rate volatility, and geopolitical risks. |UAE Debt Capital Market to Surpass USD350 billion in 2026.
