OPEC+ Dispute: Nigeria Oil Supply Above 2024 Target- Note
Nigeria is seeking to ramp up oil output as the country’s production level continues to increase. The country’s output has surged following government efforts to curb oil theft and remove bottlenecks in production processes.
The dispute on expected production output by members of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) and its allies has forced a decision to shift its ministerial meeting to November 30, 2023.
The oil group postponed its meeting with oil producers in order to resolve issues around the supply target for 2024. OPEC+ was scheduled to meet on 26 November. Several members are reportedly unhappy about their production targets for next year, levels which were announced back in June.
This is specifically the case for Angola, Congo and Nigeria, who had their production targets cut since they struggled to hit their 2023 targets, ING commodities strategists said in a note.
It was noted that members were unhappy back then, and it was agreed that their targets would be revisited before the end of this year and possibly revised higher. Clearly, this has not happened.
Angola’s output target was cut from 1.46 million barrels per day (mbpd) in 2023 to 1.28mbpd in 2024, Congo’s target was reduced from 310mbpd to 276mbpd.
Nigeria’s target was cut from 1.74mbpd to 1.38mbdp.
“While Angola and Congo are currently producing below their 2024 production targets, Nigeria has managed to increase output recently and is pumping around 1.49mbpd – above its target for next year”, ING commodities strategists said in the note.
Analysts said disagreement between members will likely increase volatility within the market over the course of the next week. Oil prices traded under pressure with Brent price at $81 per barrel on Friday.
“It is unclear how this will affect broader policy, or whether it could have any impact on Saudi Arabia extending its additional voluntary cut of 1mbpd into early 2024”, ING said.
