Oil Slides as Geopolitical Risks, Tensions Begin to Ease
The oil market came under pressure, with ICE Brent settling 1.23% lower on the day at US$88.40 per barrel. The geopolitical risk premium continues to fade as tensions between Israel and Iran have eased, ING said in a note.
Analysts noted hopes for a potential ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. The weakness in the middle distillate market will also offer little support to the crude market.
The ICE gasoil crack is trading at its lowest level since last June, which has dragged down refinery margins, ING said. There have already been reports that some Asian refiners are cutting run rates in response to these lower margins.
Oil prices decreased on Monday amid cease-fire hopes in the Middle East and growing uncertainties over the timing of the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate cuts.
Yesterday, ICE Brent crude traded at $87.45 per barrel, a 0.86% decrease from the closing price of $88.21 per barrel in the previous trading session.
The American benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traded at $83.11 per barrel at the same time, a 0.88% fall from the previous session that closed at $83.85 per barrel.
The likelihood of a cease-fire in Gaza increased as US Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in Saudi Arabia to discuss this possibility on Monday, drawing prices down at the start of the week.
Blinken will discuss efforts to reach a cease-fire in Gaza that guarantees the release of hostages while acknowledging that Hamas is the stumbling block between the Palestinian people and the cease-fire, State Department spokesman Matthew Miller revealed in a statement.
He is also anticipated to discuss the path toward an independent Palestinian state that secures Israel’s security, measures to bring about long-term peace and stability in the region by preventing the conflict from spreading, and an increase in humanitarian aid for Gaza.
The possibility of a cease-fire in the region, home to major oil trade routes, supported price falls.
Additionally, uncertainties over when the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will start interest rate cuts continue to influence oil prices. Money markets are still waiting for the US Fed to implement its first interest rate cut in the fourth quarter of the year, despite data released last week indicating otherwise in the US.
The possibility of a rate cut further supported downward price movements, as generally high interest rates boost the value of the US dollar, making oil more expensive for holders of other currencies. #Oil Slides as Geopolitical Risks, Tensions Begin to Ease
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