Oil Prices See 2.5% Weekly Surge Amidst Uncertainties
Oil prices increased by 2.5% for the week due to a decline in the US dollar and positive investor sentiment at the start of the week. However, prices faced challenges midweek from growing US inventories, trade disputes, and forecasts of higher OPEC+ production.
Brent crude was trading at $68.01 on Friday, marking a rise of around 2.5% from last week’s closing price of $66.33. The American benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traded at $65.76 per barrel, up approximately 2% from last Friday’s close of $64.54.
Prices started the week on a positive note as the US dollar weakened, making oil cheaper for holders of other currencies. The dollar index fell to below 97 on Monday as US President Donald Trump stepped up criticism of the Federal Reserve, calling for rate cuts to support the economy.
However, oil markets came under pressure midweek after US government data showed an unexpected rise in crude and gasoline inventories. The Energy Information Administration reported a 3.8 million-barrel build in commercial crude stocks, while gasoline inventories increased by 4.2 million barrels, both defying analyst expectations and signaling weakening demand.
Uncertainty around US trade policy further weighed on sentiment. As the July 9 tariff deadline nears, Trump warned that countries failing to reach trade agreements could face tariffs of 20% to 30%, or higher.
His remarks on social media and in interviews revived investor concerns over global economic growth and energy demand.
Nevertheless, oil prices rebounded on Wednesday, rising nearly 3% as investors priced in tentative optimism that more trade agreements could be reached before the deadline, easing some fears over a protectionist escalation.
On the supply side, attention now turns to the OPEC+ meeting scheduled for Sunday, where the alliance of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its non-OPEC partners are widely expected to approve a 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) production increase for August.
This would mark the fifth consecutive monthly hike, as the group continues to unwind voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million bpd. Geopolitical developments also influenced market sentiment during the week. Hopes for renewed nuclear diplomacy between the US and Iran eased concerns about potential supply disruptions from the Middle East.
Iran reaffirmed its commitment to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), and media reports suggest direct talks could take place in Norway next week between senior US and Iranian officials. Meanwhile, the Trump administration imposed new sanctions targeting Iran’s oil trade on Thursday as part of its maximum pressure campaign, the US Treasury Department announced.
Despite mixed signals throughout the week, oil prices remain poised for gains, driven by early-week momentum, a weaker dollar, and investor positioning ahead of key policy decisions. With the OPEC+ supply decision due this weekend and the US tariff deadline looming next week, market participants remain cautious. #Oil Prices See 2.5% Weekly Surge Amidst Uncertainties Trump to Host 5 African Leaders to Discuss Commercial Opportunities
