Nigeria’s Latest Inflation Figure a Paradox of Conflicting Narratives
Prof. Ken Ife, an economist, has described Nigeria’s latest inflation figures as a paradox of conflicting narratives, with headline inflation slowing to 15.43 per cent in July while food price pressures accelerated.
Ife said this in an interview with the News Agency of Nigeria in Abuja on Sunday. He was reacting to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Inflation Report for July released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
The NBS had reported that headline inflation declined by 0.48 percentage points from 15.91 per cent in June to 15.43 per cent in July 2026.
It said that core inflation, which excluded volatile agricultural produce and energy, declined to 14.97 per cent.
However, food inflation rose sharply on a month-on-month basis to 5.56 per cent in July, from 3.75 per cent in June, in spite of the year-on-year food inflation rate falling from 26.20 per cent in July 2025 to 20.31 per cent.
Ife, who is also a public policy analyst, said the moderation in headline inflation was largely driven by lower energy prices and stability in the foreign exchange market.
“The reason why we had the deceleration is that the energy prices on average dropped by 2.3 per cent.
“Also, the exchange rate is so stable and in fact gradually improving and not going up,” he said.
He said there was no increase in electricity tariffs in July, while fluctuations in petrol prices also contributed to the movement in the headline figure.
According to him, the food component presented a different picture, particularly because of increases in farm-gate prices and imported processed food.
“As you know, there is a supply chain disruption, there is an increase in insurance on maritime cost, maritime vessels, all their prices have gone up.
“The farm-gate food prices(farm produce ) alone rose by 4.66 per cent month-on-month, while the overall food index, including imported food, increased by 5.56 per cent, so you can see the difference,” he said.
Ife said the difference between urban and rural inflation also showed the impact of transportation on food prices.
He said the NBS report showed that urban inflation stood at 16.12 per cent year-on-year in July, while rural inflation was 13.77 per cent.
“That difference tells you that transportation is a major factor because moving goods from rural to urban areas is very critical.”
He said the state-level figures were particularly concerning, pointing to Adamawa, which recorded the highest year-on-year and month-on-month headline inflation at 33.03 per cent and 12.48 per cent.
He said that Adamawa’s food inflation was even higher at 51.36 per cent, compared with the national food inflation rate of 20.31 per cent on a year-on-year basis.
“So it means Adamawa state inflation is 100 per cent more than the national average. It is not even as bad as the food sub index.
“When you look at the food sub index, the country is about 20.31 per cent on a year-on-year basis but if you go to Adamawa , Adamawa is 51.36 per cent for food inflation, that is 150 per cent increase.”
Ife described the situation in Adamawa as an “alarm bell”, urging authorities and the media to investigate the factors responsible for the unusually high inflation in the state.
He expressed concern that the high food inflation was occurring during the harvest season and called for urgent measures to improve food supply and cushion the effect on consumers.
The economist said that strategic grain reserves could be released to areas experiencing severe food-price pressures, while emergency interventions should be deployed if flooding was contributing to the situation. #Nigeria’s Latest Inflation Figure a Paradox of Conflicting Narratives# Nigeria Raises N7.62trn from Bonds in 8 Months
