Nigeria’s Headline Inflation Declines to 15.91% in June
Nigeria’s headline inflation moderated marginally to 15.91% year-on-year in June 2026, from 15.93% recorded in May, marking a 0.02 percentage point decline and reversing the gradual uptick observed in the previous months.
The latest print broadly aligns with market expectations and our forecast of 15.80%, reflecting the continued impact of favourable base effects and easing underlying price pressures.
On a month-on-month basis, headline inflation slowed to 1.66% from 1.75% in May, indicating that the pace of increase in consumer prices moderated during the review period.
Although inflation remains significantly lower than the 25.29% recorded in June 2025, the latest data suggest that the disinflation process is becoming more gradual.
Core inflation declined to 15.92% year-on-year from 25.41% in the corresponding period of 2025, while its month-on-month reading eased to 1.66% from 1.94% in May, reflecting slower increases in underlying consumer prices.
In contrast, food inflation remained elevated at 17.52% year-on-year, while the monthly food inflation rate accelerated to 3.75% from 2.98% in May, 2026.
This was driven by higher prices of key staples including fresh tomatoes, pepper, crayfish, beef, garri, yam tubers, cassava flour, cowpea and Irish potatoes. This points to the persistence of food supply challenges despite improvements in broader price stability.
Cowry Research expect the MPC to retain its wait-and-see approach, allowing the cumulative impact of previous monetary tightening to continue filtering through the economy.
Provided the current disinflation trend is sustained, and exchange rate stability remains intact, the policy environment could gradually shift towards a more accommodative stance, increasing the likelihood of the first interest rate cut at the September MPC meeting.
