Nigeria Boosts Trade Surplus to N5.17trn as Imports Taper
While scaling back on imports, Nigeria’s drive to boost export receipts amidst global trade uncertainties lifted trade surplus to N5.17 trillion in the first quarter of 2025, analysts said.
The devaluation of the Nigerian naira has reduced appetite for imports activities as previous foreign exchange liabilities exposed a number of companies to huge losses.
Analysts said imports volume and value have reduced as economic players become selective, and more conservative by looking inwards for alternative input sources.
On the other hands, agricultural exports gathered momentum in the period, as the country seeks to diversified revenue sources away from oil sales.
According to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria recorded a total foreign trade value of N36.02 trillion in Q1 2025, a 6.19% year-on-year increase from Q1 2024.
NBS report revealed that exports accounted for 57.18% of total trade which came in at N20.60 trillion, while imports stood at N15.43 trillion, representing 42.82% of the trade volume.
The Nigeria’s favourable trade outturn, driven by solid export policy, translated to merchandise trade surplus of N5.17 trillion, representing 51.07% above Q4 2024 performance.
Nigeria’s foreign trade performance in Q1 2025 showed sustained momentum driven by increased export activity, particularly in crude oil and agricultural products, against a relatively tempered import trend, Cowry Asset Limited noted.
Analysts highlighted that positive trade surplus of N5.17 trillion in Q1 underscores continued external sector strength despite global economic headwinds.
Exports remained the engine of trade performance, accounting for 57.18% of total trade at N20.60 trillion. Crude oil retained its status as the top export item, generating N12.96 trillion or 62.89% of total exports.
However, there was a mild year-on year contraction of 16.35% in crude oil exports due to softer global prices and shipping disruptions.
In contrast, non-crude oil exports—which include agricultural goods and manufactured products—contributed N7.64 trillion (37.11%), a strong indicator of the government’s ongoing diversification efforts.
Agricultural exports stood out, up by 64.65% year on year to N1.70 trillion, buoyed by increased shipments of cocoa beans, cashew nuts, and sesame seeds.
Raw material exports also grew significantly, climbing 196.12% to N1.04 trillion. However, solid mineral exports slipped 7.17% year on year, highlighting structural bottlenecks in mining logistics and value addition.
Manufactured exports dropped sharply by 40.43% from Q4 2024 to N294.43 billion, underlining Nigeria’s weak industrial capacity and global competitiveness.
On a regional basis, Europe remained Nigeria’s largest export destination (N8.64 trillion or 41.96%), followed by Asia (N6.75 trillion) and America (N3.33 trillion). Exports to Africa totaled N1.85 trillion, with ECOWAS countries absorbing N1.07 trillion, reflecting modest intra-African trade integration.
Top individual export partners were India (N2.84 trillion), Netherlands (N2.26 trillion), the U.S. (N1.54 trillion), France (N1.44 trillion), and Spain (N1.44 trillion), collectively accounting for 46.25% of total exports.
On the imports side, total imports amounted to N15.43 trillion in Q1 2025, representing 42.82% of total trade and marking a 4.59% year on year increase.
However, compared to Q4 2024, imports declined by 7.02%, reflecting a slowdown in capital goods inflows and subdued consumer demand due to naira volatility and foreign exchange constraints.
China maintained its position as Nigeria’s leading import partner, contributing N4.66 trillion or 30.19% of total imports. India and the U.S. followed with N1.72 trillion and N1.42 trillion, respectively.
Goods from Europe and Asia dominated the import basket, with mineral fuels (N4.97 trillion), machinery and transport equipment (N4.06 trillion), and chemicals (N2.23 trillion) ranking as top import categories. Agricultural goods imports rose 12.52% YoY to N1.04 trillion, driven by wheat and soybean purchases.
Raw material imports expanded by 23.42% to N1.81 trillion, pointing to continued demand by local manufacturing and agro-processing firms. Notably, the value of manufactured imports hit N7.51 trillion, reflecting a 30.90% YoY jump—a worrying sign for Nigeria’s local manufacturing aspirations and import-substitution goals.
Conversely, the import value of other oil products slumped by 42.20% YoY, consistent with FX pressure and reduced refined fuel consumption amid subsidy removal.
The positive trade balance of N5.17 trillion in Q1 2025 represents a critical boost to Nigeria’s current account and external reserves. Compared to Q4 2024’s surplus of N3.42 trillion, the 51.07% increase is a testament to resilient export performance and cautious import management.
However, the continued over-reliance on crude oil—despite falling volumes—remains a structural vulnerability, especially in the face of global energy transition pressures.
“We think Nigeria’s trade outlook will hinge on global commodity prices, the effectiveness of trade facilitation policies, and domestic industrial output.
“The sharp growth in agricultural and raw material exports is encouraging, but declining manufactured exports and increasing import dependence raise concerns about long-term competitiveness.
“Policymakers and economic directors must focus on improving infrastructure, trade logistics, and value chain integration to solidify recent gains and deepen Nigeria’s participation in global trade”, Cowry Asset Management Limited said in a review note. #Nigeria Boosts Trade Surplus to N5.17trn as Imports Taper#
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