NESG Advises FG on 2.2m bpd Oil Output for Budget Success
The Nigeria Economic Summit Group (NESG) has advised the Federal Government to sustain the crude oil production level of 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) to ensure the feasibility of the 2025 budget.
Dr Tayo Aduloju, the Chief Executive Officer of NESG, gave the advice at the group’s media interaction on presentation of the group’s strategic vision for 2025 and the private sector macroeconomic outlook on Friday in Abuja.
Aduloju said that Nigeria had seen fluctuating crude oil production levels over the years, with three key production benchmarks: 1.1 million bpd, 2.2 million bpd, and 2.8 million bpd.
He noted that these different phases of the oil industry had impacts on the Nigerian economy, adding that targeting a crude oil level of 2.2 million bpd was “not ambitious.” “Hitting 2.2 million bpd crude production, regardless of the crude oil price, is necessary for the budget to be realistic.
“The government has shown since it came into office that crude production moved from 1.1 million bpd to 2.2 million bpd, and even to 2.8 million bpd.
“This shows that the government can achieve 2.2 million bpd if our trajectory is an incremental movement in daily oil production. It means it’s possible,” he stated the
Aduloju, who also unveiled “The Arc of the Possible,” NESG’s strategy for driving Nigeria’s economic development, reiterated that 2.2 million bpd was “not ambitious,” noting, “it’s within the arc of the possible”.
“The Arc of the Possible” underscores NESG’s commitment to actionable solutions that unlock growth and prosperity with clear targets across key sectors in the short to medium term.
He explained that achieving the target would lead to a positive impact on the economy, particularly in stabilising the foreign exchange market by generating more foreign earnings.
This, he noted, would also boost government efforts on deregulation, liberalisation of the downstream sector and effective regulatory governance.
He, however, said that the federal government needed to ensure political stability thrives in the country to sustain 2.2 million bpd.
Aduloju called for quick intervention in ensuring stability returns to Rivers State and continued funding of government security improvement plans because of its significance to the nation’s oil production and the economy generally.
“Effective implementation of stabilisation reforms could accelerate Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth to 5.5 per cent in 2025,” he said.
The CEO said that the report, titled “Stabilisation in Transition: Rethinking Reform Strategies for 2025 and Beyond,” acknowledged the government’s efforts to address cross-sectoral challenges.
He said that the report mentioned the anticipated positive effects of improved electricity supply and fuel availability, expected to reduce business disruptions, particularly for Nano, Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (NMSMEs), thereby boosting productivity and economic performance.
“Additionally, improved foreign exchange availability will sustain operations in the manufacturing sector, which depends on imported raw materials and intermediate inputs.
“In agriculture, addressing financing, storage, warehousing, and logistics challenges will bolster sectoral performance.
“The oil and gas sector will remain critical, not just for growth but also as a significant contributor to foreign exchange inflows, external balances resilience, and government revenue.
“Furthermore, the manufacturing sector is projected to expand due to stabilization policies that address power supply challenges and reduce input costs,” Aduloju said.
The CEO said that the NESG report forecasts a decline in inflation to 24.7 per cent under optimal stabilisation efforts, indicating an improvement in the country’s macroeconomic stability.
He said that the report identified effective coordination of fiscal and monetary policies as essential for driving the anticipated reduction in inflation.
Aduloju said that a relatively stable foreign exchange market, resulting from increased foreign exchange supply and reduced speculative demand, would play a crucial role in curbing inflation.
“The anticipated enhanced productivity dynamics across key economic sectors, particularly agriculture, are expected to contribute significantly to the projected ease in inflationary pressure in 2025.
“Increased agricultural output will improve food supply, address scarcity, and ease food price pressure, which constitutes a significant driver of inflation in the country.
“Additionally, improved security in major food-producing regions will ensure better access to farmlands and supply chains, further stabilising food prices,” he said.#NESG Advises FG on 2.2m bpd Oil Output for Budget Success#
