MTN Nigeria Drops on Selloffs, Analysts Differ on Future Price
MTN Nigeria Plc lost about 3% of its market value due to pre-earnings selloffs, while a Lagos-based investment firm advised clients to maintain their positions in the telecom company.
In contrast, other competing investment firms advise investors to increase their MTN Nigeria holdings in anticipation of strong upside potential.
Market analysts anticipate the Q3 earnings release to act as a catalyst for MTN Nigeria re-rating, which could take the telecom company to a new high, based on previous patterns in the local bourse.
MTN Nigeria’s share price climbed to N840 on Friday at the Nigerian Exchange as 3.978 million units of the telecom company’s outstanding shares, valued at N3.348 billion, traded on the open market.
The buying action reduced the negative effects of shares already offloaded during the week, with the share price closing at N840 from N863.
All in, the market value of MTN Nigeria Plc.’s 20.995 billion outstanding shares fell 2.6651% to N17.636 trillion, more than 9% below its 52-week high.
Different Target Prices Across Bradstreet
Equities analysts have set different target prices for MTN Nigeria, reflecting different views on the company’s earnings and estimates. Analysts at PAC Holdings placed MTN Nigeria on a Hold rating, citing negative price returns estimated at 7%.
The firm said the telecom’s next re-rating needs evidence of statutory data revenue growth, paid usage and comparable yield disclosures. Tests whether network demand supports the largest revenue driver.
PAC Holdings believes that MTN Nigeria’s re-rating will depend on whether cash taxes, supplier settlements, and cash after investment are sufficient to fund distributions without additional borrowing.
MTN Nigeria’s capacity gains must justify the cash outlay; lower expenditure alone is not a catalyst, PAC Holdings says.
Cowry Asset Securities Limited anticipates a 30% upside for the telecom company at a market price of N840 on Friday, according to its stock recommendation.
Guiding investors to buy the stock, equities analysts at Cowry Asset Securities Limited set a target price of N1088.10 for MTN Nigeria, with earnings per share estimated at N43.81.
Equities analysts at CardinalStone Securities set a target price of N1002.49 for MTN Nigeria, with a reference price of N805, which presents significant upside potential.
At N840 per share, CardinalStone has realised part of the upside potential it anticipated. The telecom giant has come out of the woods; growth has normalised, and analysts say it has also sustained its fundamentals, making the telcos attractive.
MTN Nigeria’s half-year 2026 performance showed some short-term moderation in year-on-year momentum, though the overall topline increased by about 26% to N3 trillion.
However, beneath the headline growth, underlying momentum softened, as shown by a 0.2% quarterly revenue decline in Q2 2026—the first quarter-on-quarter contraction since Q2 2020, CardinalStone Securities Limited highlighted.
The slowdown was driven by temporary disruption to airtime and data credit services under the Value-Added Services (VAS) revenue segment, weaker performance, and softer conversion of new subscribers into Data users.
However, data demand remained resilient, supported by higher data usage during the period, analysts said.
“In H2, we expect a partial recovery in revenue. We also expect continued cost discipline, structural cost benefits and strong cash generation to support bottom-line profitability and balance-sheet strength.
“Overall, we maintain a constructive medium-term view, with our revised 12-month TP of N1,002.49, implying 24.5% upside and supporting our buy rating”, CardinalStone said in its equity report. MTN, FirstHoldco, Aradel Boost NGX Performance, Return Tops 60%
