IEA Reduces Global Oil Demand Growth for 2025
The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects global oil demand growth this year to be the lowest since 2009, excluding the exceptional drop recorded during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.
According to the IEA’s July Oil Market Report, global oil demand is projected to increase by around 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) this year compared to 2024, reaching 103.68 million bpd. This marks a downward revision from the agency’s previous forecast of a 720,000 bpd increase.
The slowdown is largely attributed to weaker-than-expected deliveries in the second quarter. During this period, global oil demand rose by just 550,000 bpd year-on-year, half the 1.1 million bpd growth seen in the first quarter. Stronger demand early in the year was driven by colder-than-average winter conditions in OECD countries, but a notable deceleration followed in recent months, especially in developing economies.
While the report notes that it may be premature to directly link the slowdown to the economic effects of trade tariffs, the most significant quarterly demand declines were seen in countries most exposed to tariff tensions, including China, Japan, South Korea, the US, and Mexico. In contrast, Europe and emerging markets outside Asia showed greater resilience.
The IEA expects oil demand growth to maintain its current pace through the second half of 2025. For 2026, demand is forecast to increase by around 720,000 bpd to reach 104.4 million bpd, supported by anticipated shifts toward more accommodative monetary and fiscal policies globally.
The report also shows that global oil supply surged by approximately 950,000 bpd in June compared to the previous month, reaching 105.62 million bpd.
Crude output from OPEC members increased by around 420,000 bpd to 28.26 million bpd, while production from other liquids, including condensates, remained flat at 5.63 million bpd. This brought OPEC’s total oil supply to 33.89 million bpd.
Non-OPEC countries also boosted production by roughly 530,000 bpd to 71.73 million bpd during the same period.
The IEA estimates that 500,000 bpd of June’s global oil supply increase came from the OPEC+ alliance, which includes OPEC members and other key producers.
Saudi Arabia led the gains, raising its crude output by 700,000 bpd. Smaller increases were recorded in Iraq, Kazakhstan, and the UAE. However, these gains were partially offset by a sharp 400,000 bpd drop in Iranian output and further declines in Venezuela. OPEC+ total crude production rose to 42.7 million bpd.
Outside the OPEC+ group, supply grew by 450,000 bpd to 54.6 million bpd, driven by rising output in Canada and seasonal biofuel production. These increases outweighed declines in Colombia and the US.
Compared to the same period last year, global oil production rose by 2.9 million bpd in June, of which 1.9 million bpd came from OPEC+ countries. #IEA Reduces Global Oil Demand Growth for 2025 SEC to Roll out Guidelines for Fintech in 2025 – Agama
