ICE Mortgage Monitor: Q4 Lending Climbs to 3.5-Year High
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (NYSE: ICE), one of the world’s leading providers of financial market technology and data powering global capital markets, today released its March 2026 ICE Mortgage Monitor Report.
According to the analysis, total mortgage originations reached an estimated 1.44 million in the fourth quarter — the largest quarterly tally since Q3 2022 — as a surge in refinance activity drove lending to its highest level in three and a half years, and servicer retention climbed to an eight-year high.
“The fourth quarter marked a meaningful inflexion point for mortgage market activity,” said Andy Walden, Head of Mortgage and Housing Market Research at ICE. Refinances accounted for nearly 40% of Q4 lending, and servicers retained one in three refinancing borrowers, the strongest overall retention rate since early 2014.
Underpinning it all, February’s dip in mortgage rates expanded the refinance-eligible population to 5.4 million borrowers, the largest pool we’ve seen since early 2022, further improving affordability, which is at its best level in nearly four years.”
Key findings from the March Mortgage Monitor indicate that the number of borrowers considered refinance-eligible by at least 75 basis points jumped to 5.4 million, the highest level since early 2022.
An estimated 565,000 first-lien refinances closed in the fourth quarter, up roughly 50% from a year earlier and representing the highest quarterly volume since Q2 2022.
Affordability continued to improve on its near four-year high, with the monthly payment needed to purchase the average-priced home declining 8% from a year ago to $2,063.
Q4 lending reached 3.5-year high, driven by refinance activity, according to the report. Total mortgage originations reached an estimated 1.44 million in the fourth quarter, the largest quarterly tally since Q3 2022.
Refinances accounted for nearly 40% of fourth-quarter lending, the highest quarterly share since early 2022. Activity was concentrated among recently originated loans, with the average rate-and-term refinancer carrying a $510,000 balance and reducing their monthly payment by $248.
Equity extraction remained strong, led by largest second lien volume in 18 years. Homeowners withdrew $52 billion in equity during the fourth quarter, bringing full-year 2025 equity withdrawals to $205 billion — the highest annual total since 2022.
Of that figure, $116 billion was extracted through second liens, marking the largest annual second-lien volume since 2007. Homeowners continue to hold nearly $17 trillion in total equity, with approximately $11 trillion considered tappable.
Property insurance costs hit another record high, though rate of growth slowed. Average annual property insurance payments rose 6.6% ($149) in 2025 to an all-time high, but at the slowest pace since 2020.
The fourth quarter also marked the first quarter-over-quarter decline in insurance costs since ICE began tracking monthly data in late 2023.
ICE Climate research found that borrowers in the highest insurance-burden quintile were at least 22% more likely to be non-current than those in the lowest quintile of credit score tiers analysed.
For every percentage-point increase in housing expenses allocated to insurance, the non-current rate rose by roughly 0.14 percentage points, on average across credit score quintiles.
Servicers retained one in three refinancing borrowers in the fourth quarter, the strongest overall retention rate since early 2014. Retention among rate-and-term refinances hit 40%, also a 14-year high. Performance was particularly strong among recently originated loans, with FHA and VA loans leading retention gains.
“The trends we’re observing underscore how quickly rate shifts can reshape borrower opportunity, lender volume and portfolio performance,” said Bob Hart, President of ICE Mortgage Technology.
“As refinance incentives return and retention improves, mortgage organisations need technology that helps them identify opportunities faster, engage borrowers more effectively and execute efficiently across the lifecycle.
ICE’s end-to-end mortgage platform is built to help clients respond to changing market conditions with greater speed, insight and precision.” #ICE Mortgage Monitor: Q4 Lending Climbs to 3.5-Year High
