How MTN Nigeria Survives the Tide, Boosts Shareholders’ Value by 110%
Telecommunication company MTN Nigeria Plc has always been an investors’ toast until something unanticipated happened after late ex-president Muhammad Buhari transferred the baton of authority two years ago.
The reformist came to the market and shook the very existence of companies in the private sector field, a development MTN Nigeria did not escape.
On assuming the highest office in Nigeria, President Bola Tinubu began a reform that shook the very fabric of the Nigerian economy. Fuel subsidy was removed, and MTN Nigeria began to pay more to power its operations, though the telecom company was not at liberty to transfer costs to customers.
While managing to survive the higher operating costs, the authority devalued the naira – and then FMDQ changed FX rate methodology. The significant devaluation of the local currency stoked pressures on MTN Nigeria’s foreign exchange-denominated liabilities – and then $1 borrowing multiplied in folds.
The huge forex losses reduced overall profitability and dented the company’s well-carved business and operational strategies. At this time, the interest rate on borrowing has surged due to the monetary authority’s contractionary policy.
With MTN earnings staggered, it becomes reality that having solid fundamentals and the highest market share was not enough when policy decisions that cannot be contested impact earnings negatively.
The naira devaluation is a selfish policy, some market critics hum, but their voice was not even heard. For the straight quarters, MTN Nigeria bled profusely. Some retail investors turned their backs, some held positions and others took cover with an early exit.
Shareholders’ funds turned red, and MTN Nigeria raised some short-term borrowing via a series of commercial papers at market-friendly rates. The telecom spotted a grey area in its previous lease tower deals and called for renegotiation, which was granted based on mutual benefits.
In the first quarter of 2025, the light came, and MTN Nigeria posted its first profit after the dark period that shook its very existence. If MTN were to be a bank, it would have gone down the drain with damaged equity capital.
iMTN share price fell, hovered around N250, and equity analysts who appeared to have seen the future guided investors to buy – few listened, some ignored, and others kept looking to what would happen next.
MarketForces Africa repeatedly quoted some investment banking firm that MTN Nigeria has strong upside potential, and those who cared to listen and believe staked their bets even in the dark, hoping that light will come.
The telecom giant in controlling highest market share in Nigeria boosted its shareholders’ wealth by 110% in nine months, according to trading data from the Nigerian Exchange.
In plain language, investors that purchased the telecom stock shares worth N100 million at the beginning of 2025 would have N210 million at the end of September. This means that shareholders have gained more than they put into the company in 270 days even without dividends.
Though MTN Nigeria has no plan to pay a dividend in 2025, its shareholders have been well covered with strong capital appreciation that lifted its market value to N10 trillion at a point in the third quarter.
MTN Nigeria share price, which was hovering around N200 – N250 when investors paused taking additional risks during its toughest time, has ballooned following earnings recovery that started in 2025.
Tariff price adjustment helped the telecom giant earnings recovery, and its ability to renegotiate its tower lease arrangement return the company back to profitability.
Though a lot has gone under the water, MTN Nigeria was able to salvage itself from entering corporate comatose. While its balance sheet was significantly broker, the telecom company.
A slew of investment banking firms advised their clients to buy MTN Nigeria at different reference prices to take advantage of its upside potential in the stock market ahead of the third quarter of 2025 earnings release.
Equity analysts at Cowry Asset Limited projected 34% upside potential for the telecom stock at a reference market price of N425 versus a target price of N569.50.
Futureview Financial Limited sets a target price for MTN Nigeria at N503 at a reference price of N420, with equity analysts anticipating about 20% upside from the telecom company.
At the close of the trading session on Friday, MTN Nigeria Plc’s 20.995 billion shares outstanding were valued at N8.923 trillion – which is 14.14% below its highest value on the NGX in the last 52 weeks.
