GTCO Delivers 52% Gain in 11-Month Amidst Earnings Pressure
GTCO Plc added significant value to its shareholders with about a 52% year-to-date return on the initial share price at the beginning of 2025. The holding company’s share price reflects positive sentiment amidst unimpressive earnings performance in 2025.
In November, equities analysts at Cordros Securities Limited lowered their earnings expectations for the group amidst tight regulation and margin-dilutive monetary policy, which is expected to be persistent due to expected disinflation.
The orange-branded financial services group recorded many wins, including a foray into the London Stock Exchange, where it became a public listing company. The move raised the bar on its disclosure and attracted strategic investors to increase their bets on GTCO – one of the Nigerian banks with the lowest key man risk.
In the stock market, trading data showed that GTCO’s share price reached N86.40 on Friday when 10,419 units of the company valued at N900.630 million were exchanged on the trading platform.
With N1.90 price uptick, the financial company market value climbed to N3.147 trillion, a significant 16.3% discount to its highest value in 52 weeks.
Equity analysts across Broadstreet remain positive about GTCO’s outlook despite its recent unimpressive performance. The group has been delivering underwhelming earnings results in 2025 due to cost pressures and weak non-core business performance.
At the current market price, equities analysts at Cowry Asset Limited are projecting 30% upside potential as the investment firm set its target price for GTCO at N112.30 – a level never reached – on forecasted earnings per share of N17.10.
FSDH Group set GTCO’s target price at N116.80, with an estimated upside potential of 37.85% at N84.50 as a reference stock market price.
In November, equities analysts at Cordros Securities Limited reduced year-end target price for GTCO to N86.39/s from NGN87.14/s and downgraded the stock to “HOLD”, largely due to a weaker non-interest income.
The investment noted that a significant drop in GTCO fair value gains prompted a downward revision to non-funded income and a lower 2025 earnings per share estimate of NGN26.21 from NGN28.48.
Analysts said the group’s capital injection into the banking subsidiary is expected to mildly dilute near-term EPS. GTCO earnings performance showed a 35.5% year-on-year decline in post-tax earnings to NGN699.64 billion at the end of 9M 2025, as a 44.4% drop in non-interest income offset resilient core earnings growth.
“…we now forecast a gross earnings decline of -5.2% year on year as against +3.3% uptick initially projected. We also reduced our gross DPS forecast to NGN8.50 from NGN9.20,” Cordros Securities limited told investors in a review note.
The firm anticipated that the group’s weak non-interest income will pressure earnings. “We revised our 2025 forecasts to reflect updated assumptions on asset growth, yields, and non-core income performance.
Analysts said they now expect interest income to grow by 16.8% year on year, down from 26.6% initial projected growth, following a downward adjustment to interest-earning asset growth and lower asset yields. In line with intensified deposit repricing, Cordros Securities Limited also raised the funding cost forecast to +26.3%. Google Launches AI Skilling Blueprint for Africa with Funding
