Fitch Upgrades Ghana to ‘B’; Outlook Positive
Fitch Ratings has upgraded Ghana’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency (LTFC) Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to ‘B’ from ‘B-‘, with a positive outlook.
The upgrade reflects a sharp fall in public debt/GDP, supported by robust real GDP growth, substantial fiscal consolidation efforts, and currency appreciation, as well as a marked increase in international reserves that lowers external liquidity risks.
According to the rating note, the positive outlook reflects expectation of continued fiscal prudence underpinned by improved public financial management, further normalisation of macroeconomic conditions evidenced by an expected decline in average inflation and a further building of external buffers.
“ We expect public debt will continue to decline to 46% of GDP in 2027, below our 2027 ‘B’ median forecast of 51%”. Fitch said this follows a 21 percentage point fall in 2025 driven by a sharp appreciation of the cedi and robust fiscal consolidation.
“The anticipated decline is supported by our forecast of continued, albeit lower primary surpluses, still robust real GDP growth and narrowing real interest rates as macroeconomic conditions continue to normalize”, Fitch said.
Ratings analysts said Ghana’s large current account surpluses, net FDI inflows and net disbursements from multilateral partners will contribute to continued accumulation of international reserves, to 4.8 months of current external payments (CXP) in 2027, against a ‘B’ median of 3.9 months.
This follows a USD5.4 billion increase in unencumbered reserves in 2025, to USD12.3 billion, which is 3.6 months of current external payment. Ratings analysts believe balance of payment trends and formalisation of small-scale gold mining will help strengthen external buffers.
Fitch forecasts the current account surplus will remain strong in 2026, after a record surplus of 8.2% of GDP in 2025, supported by our assumption that gold prices remain high this year.
“We project lower gold prices and a still high import bill driven by economic growth will contribute to the current account balance narrowing in 2027 but remaining in surplus, still more favourable than the ‘B’ median of a 3.4% current account deficit”.
Fitch analysts anticipate Ghana will meet its fiscal primary surplus target of 1.5% of GDP in 2026 and 2027 (commitment basis), after a record surplus of 2.9% in 2025.
Ghana has significantly improved public financial management, and this lowers the risk of short-term fiscal slippages, in Fitch analysts view.
To cushion the pass-through of high international oil prices to domestic fuel prices, Ghana has lowered taxes and levies on hydrocarbon products for one month from mid-April 2026.
Analysts anticipate these measures will be extended, but estimate the fiscal cost is limited to less than 0.1% of GDP per month and can be absorbed by savings elsewhere.
“We expect the interest/revenue ratio will moderately decline but remain high, at 20% through 2027, against a 2027 ‘B’ median of 14%, Fitch said.
This is supported by a weighted average interest rate of 9.1% on the local-currency bonds issued on completion of the domestic debt exchange programme (DDEP), balanced by falling yields on T-bills and low interest rates on foreign-currency-denominated bonds issued on completion of the Common Framework debt exchange.
Since the DDEP (2023), Ghana only issued T-bills until reopening the bond market in April 2026, issuing a GHS3.8 billion seven-year bond. T-bill yields have fallen since early 2025 to historically low levels, but analysts expect they will gradually rise by the end of 2026, following inflation trends.
The country’s second largest Eurobond of USD2.9 billion issued in 2024 started amortising in January 2026 and DDEP bonds will start amortising in 2027, contributing to debt service costs (excluding short-term debt) rising to 6.8% of GDP in 2027, from 4.6% in 2025.
“We believe unencumbered international reserves at end-2025 (USD12.3 billion), our anticipation of a continued increase in reserves, and central government deposits (2.4% of GDP at end-2025) mean Ghana will comfortably meet these obligations.
“We expect it will potentially buy back some of the DDEP bonds before maturity, helped by the reopening of the bond market”. Ghana’s inflation slowed to 3.2% year on year in March 2026, its lowest level since 1999, helped by a pass-through of exchange rate appreciation.
Inflation marginally rose to 3.4% in April 2026, and we expect it will gradually rise by the end of the year, as the pass-through abates and high oil prices affect domestic prices.
On an annual average basis, inflation will remain on a declining trend in 2026 and 2027. Analysts anticipate the Bank of Ghana will remain prudent and pause its easing cycle to prevent inflation risks from materialising, after a cumulative 1,400bp monetary policy rate cut between July 2025 and March 2026, to 14%.
“We expect real GDP growth will remain solid through 2027 and average 5%, supported by strong gold mining prospects, firmer consumer confidence enabled by a decline in inflation and borrowing costs, and a less restrictive fiscal policy stance”, Fitch said. Oil Market Sees 7% Weekly Decline in Crude Prices
