EIA Upgrades Brent Price Projection for 2025
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its Brent crude oil price forecast for 2025 to $67.80 per barrel from $67.22, while warning of sharp declines later in the year and into 2026.
In its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) released late Tuesday, the EIA also revised up its 2025 West Texas Intermediate (WTI) projection to $64.16 per barrel from $63.58.
Despite the upward revisions, Brent, which averaged $68 in August, is forecast to fall to $59.41 in the fourth quarter of 2025 and $49.97 in early 2026.
The EIA said large inventory builds, driven by OPEC+ supply increases of 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) from October, will pressure prices lower.
It expects global oil inventories to rise by more than 2 million bpd from Q3 2025 through early 2026.
Low prices in early 2026 are expected to reduce output from OPEC+ and some non-OPEC producers, which would slow inventory growth later in the year. On this basis, the agency projects Brent to average $51 per barrel in 2026, while warning of significant uncertainty in its outlook.
“Although we do not currently forecast any major supply disruptions, risks to oil supply remain. The ongoing tensions and negotiations related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict could affect supply, while further sanctions could be enacted,” the agency noted.
Additionally, ongoing trade negotiations and legal challenges related to tariffs between the US and its trading partners could affect economic and oil demand growth, with implications for oil prices, according to EIA.
The EIA also pointed to trade disputes and tariff-related legal challenges as possible risks to global economic and oil demand growth, which could further influence prices. It added that OPEC+ could reconsider its production policy in response to a sustained oversupply.
US crude output is expected to average 13.44 million bpd in 2025 and 13.30 million bpd in 2026, compared to 13.23 million bpd last year.
Global oil supply is forecast to average 105.54 million bpd in 2025 and 106.64 million bpd in 2026, while global demand is projected at 103.81 million bpd in 2025 and 105.09 million bpd in 2026.
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