Capital Gains Tax Downside to Stock Market Growth in 2026 – Firm
With the implementation of the new capital gains tax starting in 2026, Nigeria will charge up to 30% on investors that realised above N150 million in gain from trading shares in the local bourse.
The market is expected to react negatively to the equity gain tax which exempted retail investors with less than benchmark capital appreciation on trading deals.
The tax will be applied only to investors that make at least N150 million from selling shares in Nigerian Exchange, and not those whose portfolio value only increase.
The local bourse delivered historic 51.2% return in 2025. The market saw investors exiting positions due to unclear capital gains tax until further clarity was provided by the authority.
With the Nigerian bourse acting as hedge against the country’s double digit inflation, the market is poised to maintain last year’s bullish trend, according to Broadstreet consensus.
“We are cautiously optimistic that this postulation will be supported by improving macro fundamentals. However, sentiment remains fragile due to the new CGT regime effective January 2026, which levies c.25–30% on sizable equity gains above ₦150 million”, Anchoria Securities Limited said.
The firm said while small retail investors are largely exempt, institutional investors are recalibrating exposure, and foreign inflows could slow amid heightened cost of equity concerns.
Anchoria said compounding this, the U.S. President Trump’s military rhetoric toward Nigeria adds a geopolitical risk premium and still casts a shadow over market confidence.
Though, diplomatic channels have since eased tensions, investors remain wary of further geopolitical volatility. On the upside, a potential landmark listing of Dangote Refinery (and possibly fertilizer businesses) on the NGX in 2026 offers a deep, transformative catalyst.
The listing will provide Naira-based issuance with U.S. dollar dividends in a dual-structure model, attracting both domestic and global capital while reinforcing market confidence.
Overall, January could see selective accumulation in high-quality industrial and consumer goods names, as investors rebalance into defensive and yield-generating blue chips. Sector rotation may intensify, with portfolios tilted toward companies with robust earnings visibility.
“We expect financial year 2025 earnings guidance and early Q1 results to be pivotal across Banking, Consumer, and the Industrials. Additionally, the 2026 Appropriation Bill with ₦26.08 trillion in capital expenditure supports the industrial goods sector by boosting demand for construction materials.
“Especially cement, steel, and building inputs used in roads, housing, power, and rail projects. This leads to higher volumes and better capacity utilisation for industrial firms.
“NAICOM’s recapitalisation remains in motion with the July 30, 2026 deadline remaining firm. We expect sustained speculative interest and consolidation narratives in the Insurance sector through Q1-26.
“It is also worth highlighting that the latest shift to T+2 settlement is expected to enhance turnover dynamics and aligns the NGX with global best practice.
“With Brent trading between US$60–66/b due to global oversupply and demand concerns, the Oil & Gas sector is likely to register moderate gains.
“Improved crude oil production which averaged 1.40mbpd in 2025 along with fx stability which reduces operational and financial risk for the oil & gas players, offers a backdrop for mild optimism even if global benchmark oil prices hover slightly lower.
“From our vantage point, we remain cautiously bullish on Consumer Goods, Industrials and Banks with dividend catalysts. Oil & Gas warrants caution, given global surplus dynamics and the sector’s mixed 2025 showing.
“Domestic institutional investors are expected to remain dominant, providing stability amid potential volatility from profit-taking and global macro uncertainties”, Anchoria Securities Limited highlighted.
The downside risks to this outlook include lingering uncertainty around the CGT framework and external shocks such as geopolitical tensions or commodity price volatility. It is worth highlighting that Oil & Gas remains vulnerable to global crude price swings and FX pressures, warranting cautious positioning. CBN Spends $7.5 billion to Defend Nigerian Naira in 2025
