US Energy Agency Raises Oil Price Forecasts for 2025, 2026
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has revised its average crude oil price forecasts upward for 2025 and 2026, citing developments in global oil markets.
In its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) released Tuesday, the EIA raised its 2025 average Brent crude price forecast to $68.64 per barrel, up from $67.80, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was revised to $65 per barrel from $64.16.
Despite growing global oil inventories, prices have remained relatively stable in recent months. The EIA said this is partly due to China’s strategic stockpiling, which has likely supported demand and limited downward pressure on prices.
The agency also noted that global oil demand may have been stronger over the summer than current estimates suggest. Reporting delays, particularly outside the OECD, mean that second- and third-quarter demand figures remain preliminary and based on models.
Looking ahead, rising global oil supply and the end of peak summer demand are expected to drive significant inventory growth, putting downward pressure on prices.
Inventory builds are projected to average 2.6 million barrels per day (bpd) in the fourth quarter of 2025 and exceed 2.7 million bpd in the first quarter of 2026.
“We forecast that oil prices will fall to an average of $62 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025 and $52 per barrel in the first half of 2026,” the agency said.
As global demand increases and production growth slows slightly, inventory accumulation is expected to moderate later in 2026. For 2026, the EIA projects average prices of $52.16 per barrel for Brent and $48.50 for WTI, up from $51.43 and $47.77 in the previous report.
The report also highlights several factors that could create upward or downward pressure on prices, including China’s pace of stockpiling, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and US trade policies. Additionally, expected supply surpluses later this year may prompt OPEC+ to revise production plans.
US crude output is expected to average 13.53 million bpd in 2025, up from 13.44 million in previous forecasts, and 13.51 million bpd in 2026, compared with 13.3 million previously.
Global oil supply is projected at 105.87 million bpd in 2025 and 107.17 million bpd in 2026, while consumption is expected at 103.99 million bpd in 2025 and 105.11 million bpd in 2026.
