Reduced European Gas Prices to Prompt Storage Refill –Fitch
Reduced Title Transfer Facility (TTF) gas prices should support the replenishment of European inventory ahead of the next winter season, benefitting some energy-intensive industries such as chemicals and steel, Fitch Ratings says.
The pause in new US-China tariffs might provide some support to prices, but Fitch analysts continue to expect the TTF spot price to average USD12 per thousand cubic feet (mcf) in 2025.
The price has averaged USD13.4/mcf so far this year, according to the commentary note released. TTF prices fell to USD12.5/mcf this week from a peak of USD18/mcf in early February. This was due to seasonally warmer weather, reduced natural gas demand from Asia and redirected US liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes from China to Europe.
Europe increased its LNG imports by over 20% in 1Q25 and we expect this trend to continue in 2025. China also re-exported some LNG cargoes, increasing downward pressure on TTF prices.
EU gas storage is currently 45% full. At this time last year, EU storage was 67% full, compared to 34%-42% in 2021-2022.
Fitch noted that the sharp decline in storage from last year is due to the impact of a more typical, colder winter. This caused an 8% increase in demand between October 2024 and March 2025 compared to the same period in 2023-2024.
Gas storage facilities located in EU countries are currently required to be 90% full by 1 November – although Germany has recently cut its own target to 80%. The EU might consider easing its target due to lower storage utilisation at the end of the heating season and a recovery in natural gas prices.
“We expect prices to remain highly volatile, particularly as US tariff policy continues to shift”. In addition, demand for natural gas is closely linked to economic growth, so will be affected by the sharply weaker outlook for global GDP. #Reduced European Gas Prices to Prompt Storage Refill –Fitch FG to Sell Emefiele’s 753-Unit Housing Estate
