Yield on US 10-Year Treasury Note Falls to 4.2%
US 10-year Treasury note yield fell by six basis points to close behind 4.2% on Monday, trading near its four-week low, as investors sought safety on recession fears that follow escalating trade tensions.
Investors have expressed concerns that U.S President Donald Trump tariffs threats against trading partners would trigger an unintended economic consequences, and global inflation.
Key ratings agencies have started cutting global growth outlook with expectation of massive economic distortions as a result of trade war. Goldman also says it is lowering its 2025 Q4/Q4 real GDP growth forecast by 0.5 percentage points to 1.0%, 0.7pp below the consensus estimate.
Reflecting this weaker GDP growth forecast, Goldman bumps up its year-end 2025 unemployment rate forecast by 0.3pp to 4.5%. Concerns over the trade war’s impact on the global economy persist, with new reciprocal tariffs on US imports, including a 25% levy on autos, set to take effect this week.
Uncertainty remains over the scope of the levies, as President Trump has stated they would apply broadly to all countries, while reports suggest he is pushing advisors to adopt a more aggressive trade stance.
Meanwhile, traders brace for key economic data, including the jobs report and ISM PMIs due this week, which will provide further insight into labour market conditions and private sector performance.
The Treasury yield remains little changed for March but is down about 30bps for the quarter. Investors worry that tariffs will keep inflation above the Fed’s target and weigh down on economic growth.
The magnitude of the bond-market rally ‘speaks to the collective unease among market participants,’ BMO Capital Markets strategists say. Over the weekend, President Donald Trump said he is set to announce reciprocal tariffs on all nations and not just a smaller group of them.
The Wall Street Journal also reported that an across-the-board hike of up to 20% was back on the table. The administration has said reciprocal tariffs are designed to even the playing field between the U.S. and its trading partners. eTranzact International Declares N12.5k Final Dividend
