Dollar Mixed Ahead of U.S Fed Reserve Chairman Testimony
The US dollar was mixed against its major trading partners early Wednesday as markets focus on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony before the House Financial Services Committee.
Powell will face questions on inflation and Ukraine and how the crisis will impact discussions at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting March 15-16 where a 25-basis point rate increase is expected.
Powell again appears Thursday before the Senate Banking Committee, the day before the release of the February employment report. Federal Reserve officials go into their pre-meeting “quiet period” Saturday.
The highlight of Wednesday’s data schedule will be the ADP monthly payrolls count for February, a precursor of the monthly employment report. ADP reported a 301,000 decline in private payrolls in January, while the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 444,000 jobs gain, so markets view the report cautiously.
Other data released Wednesday include weekly mortgage applications, which were reported down 0.7% earlier, weekly oil stocks, and the Fed’s Beige Book today.
A quick summary of foreign exchange activity heading into Wednesday shows that USD-CAD fell to 1.2702 from 1.2743 at the Tuesday US close and from 1.2678 a day earlier. The Bank of Canada meets Wednesday and is expected to announce a 25-basis point rate increase.
Markets had priced in a 50-basis point increase until the Russian attack on Ukraine. Markets will also watch for an announcement of a balance sheet roll-off plan. READ: FOREX Traders See US Dollar Recovered after Early Plunge
USD-JPY rose to 115.2701 from 114.923 at the Tuesday US close and 114.7311 a day earlier. Japanese capital spending was stronger than expected in Q4 according to data released overnight.
The pair have been mixed this week, but relatively stronger US economic growth and the likelihood of a Fed rate increase in a few weeks will continue to support the dollar compared with the yen.
GBP-USD was roughly unchanged at 1.3324 compared with 1.3325 at the Tuesday US close but was down sharply from 1.3410 a day earlier. There are no UK data on Wednesday’s schedule. Bank of England members Silvana Tenreyro and Jon Cunliffe speak later in the day.
Markets are now pricing in only a 25-basis point increase at the March 17 Bank of England meeting rather than the 50-basis point hike that was assumed before the situation in Ukraine escalated.
EUR-USD fell to 1.1104 from 1.1125 at the Wednesday US close and from 1.1172 a day earlier. EU consumer prices rose faster than expected in February, hitting a record high 5.8% annual rate following strong gains in individual countries over the last week.
European Central Bank members speak Wednesday ahead of the March 11 ECB meeting, where brisk inflation will compete with the Ukraine situation as the top topic. Dollar Mixed Ahead of U.S Fed Reserve Chairman Testimony
