Crude Oil Prices Down in Week as Russian Exports Surge
Global oil prices moderated over the last 5 days as supply risks eased amid rising Russian exports after a Moscow-Washington deal.
Oil prices declined in the week ending Nov. 13 as expectations of stronger global supply and weaker demand weighed on market sentiment, offsetting persistent geopolitical risks in the Middle East.
International benchmark Brent crude futures for January delivery traded at $95.85 per barrel, down 2.5% from last Friday’s close of $98.32. US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for December delivery traded at $88.28 per barrel, down around 2.8% from $90.83 a week earlier.
Hopes of easing tensions between Washington and Tehran also weighed on prices after US President Donald Trump said further military strikes on Iran were highly unlikely if the two sides reached an agreement, easing concerns over potential disruptions to regional oil supplies.
Supply-side developments added to the downward pressure, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) reporting that global oil supply rose by 2.3 million barrels per day in October to 105.36 million barrels per day, driven largely by higher exports from Gulf producers.
The agency’s forecast of a 2.7 million barrels per day decline in global oil demand in 2026 also reinforced concerns over the market outlook, as weaker consumption expectations weighed against the risk of further supply disruptions.
Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly uncertainty surrounding Iran and security risks in the Strait of Hormuz, continued to support prices by keeping potential disruptions to global oil flows in focus.
Russia Boosts Exports
Russia’s crude oil production rose in October, the same month US President Donald Trump announced a diesel supply agreement with Moscow, as global oil supply outpaced demand, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said Friday.
Russian output increased by 210,000 barrels per day to 8.73 million barrels per day, according to the agency’s November Oil Market Report.
Trump announced the agreement with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Oct. 9, saying additional Russian diesel supplies would help lower fuel prices in the US and global markets.
He said Russia would immediately supply more than 300,000 tons of diesel, followed by 500,000 tons in November and another 1 million tons afterwards.
The US Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control issued General License 135 the same day, authorising transactions involving the sale, delivery, offloading and importation of Russian-origin diesel, including into the US, through April 7, 2027.
The IEA did not directly link the increase in Russian crude production to the agreement. Global oil supply climbed 2.3 million barrels per day to 105.4 million barrels per day in October as Gulf exports recovered, exceeding demand for the first time since the Iran war began.
The agency raised its fourth-quarter supply forecast by 3.3 million barrels per day. Observed oil inventories rose by 52 million barrels in October, marking their first increase since June. However, oil-at-sea drove the buildup, while onshore stocks continued to decline.
Diesel supplies remained tight amid attacks on Russian energy infrastructure and Middle East disruptions. The IEA forecasts global oil supply will rise to 108.1 million barrels per day in 2027, up from 6.6 million barrels per day, outpacing projected demand growth of 2 million barrels per day.
The agency expects a supply surplus in the fourth quarter, followed by larger inventory buildups next year, although attacks on shipping pose risks to the recovery. FCCPC to Monitor Petrol Pump Price as Oil Dips Below $90
