Fitch Affirms IHS Holding at ‘B+’ With Positive Outlook
Fitch Ratings has affirmed IHS Holding Limited’s Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at ‘B+’ with a positive outlook. Fitch has also affirmed IHS’s senior unsecured instrument at ‘B+’ with a Recovery Rating of ‘RR4’, meaning between 31% and 50% average recovery prospects.
According to Fitch, the positive outlook reflects the company’s improving free cash flow (FCF) and financial structure, which, if maintained, would support a rating at ‘BB-‘.
Ratings analysts said greater visibility into financial policy, financial structure, and operating strategy post-acquisition by MTN Group Limited is important for the future rating trajectory.
The completion of the acquisition of IHS by MTN will likely lead to the application of Fitch’s Parent and Subsidiary Linkage (PSL) Rating Criteria. This could provide a one-notch uplift to IHS’s Standalone Credit Profile (SCP). Currently, IHS’s SCP is ‘b+’, which is in line with its IDR.
Fitch said IHS’s IDR is supported by its leading market position, a high proportion of long-term contractual revenue and moderate leverage.
The rating remains constrained by IHS’s significant exposure to Nigeria (B/Positive) – now accounting for around 80% of reported EBITDA following the disposal of LATAM assets, which has increased cash flow and leverage risks.
Fitch said IHS’s current rating reflects its SCP, while the positive outlook assumes the acquisition by MTN will not weaken its credit quality. The transaction will use around USD 1.1 billion of IHS’s balance-sheet cash and analysts said they do not expect IHS to raise any additional debt to fund it.
A future upgrade will be dependent on greater visibility on IHS’s post-transaction financial policy, leverage targets, strategy and business plan, according to the rating note.
“Should the acquisition by MTN complete as expected, this could lead to a one-notch rating uplift, subject to our final assessment under our PSL criteria.
“We would apply the criteria using a ‘stronger parent, weaker subsidiary’ approach, assessing MTN’s legal, strategic and operational incentives to support HIS”.
Fitch said IHS’s exit from LATAM, completed in August 2026, has reduced its scale and geographic diversification, leaving the group solely exposed to African emerging markets.
IHS now operates around 28,000 towers in five markets, down from more than 37,000 in seven markets before the exit. Nigeria now accounts for around 69% of revenue and 80% of reported EBITDA, a large increase in single-country concentration and exposure to Nigeria’s operating environment.
The smaller operating perimeter has reduced IHS’s absolute earnings base. Fitch-defined 2025 EBITDA was USD775 million on a pro forma basis excluding LATAM, against USD865 million including the disposed operations.
However, Fitch analysts said they expect the remaining African tower portfolio to continue generating strong cash flow, supported by long-term contracts with large telecommunications operators, and forecast Fitch-defined EBITDA to exceed USD800 million in 2028, with a 48% margin.
Ratings analysts expect end-2026 Fitch-defined net leverage to hold at the pro forma 2025 level of 3.0x, well below our 4.5x upgrade threshold, then decline towards 2.3x by 2028, excluding any shareholder distribution impact, driven by EBITDA growth in Nigeria and strong free cash flow generation supported by moderate capital intensity.
IHS targets net leverage of 3.0x-4.0x, but Fitch expects it will manage leverage at the lower end of the range, retaining sufficient headroom to absorb FX risks not mitigated by contractual escalators.
Ratings analysts highlighted that IHS can scale back discretionary investment or sell assets to preserve liquidity. Its large cash balance and undrawn committed credit facilities provide ample room to meet debt maturities and fund capex, while access to capital markets and diversified funding sources widen its options.
A staggered debt maturity profile and active liquidity management also reduce refinancing risk. IHS benefits from favourable industry dynamics, high barriers to entry, and long-term contracts with periodic escalators, supporting revenue stability and visibility.
Increasing data usage and continued network investments, including 4G/5G deployment and network densification, should support an increase in colocation rate and number of new sites across IHS’s African footprint.
Nigeria is likely to remain the main growth market given its scale within the portfolio, although customer churn may partially offset near-term organic growth.
IHS generated about 69% of 1H26 revenue in Nigeria, pro forma for the LATAM disposal. Nigeria faces high operating-environment risk, as reflected in its ‘B’ sovereign rating.
Ratings analysts consider the ratings of corporates in such high-risk markets to be constrained by the sovereign rating, even absent transfer and convertibility risk.
“We believe fragile economic structures and an unpredictable regulatory framework may weaken IHS’s business profile and therefore set tighter rating thresholds for IHS than for developed-market peers”.
Fitch analysts assess the currency mismatch between cash flow and debt as well as transfer and convertibility risk under our Corporate Rating Criteria and its guidance on exceeding the Country Ceiling.
Ratings analysts said about 85% of IHS’s debt is U.S. dollar-denominated, while only about 61% of revenue is linked to hard currencies and a power pass-through mechanism.
