GDP Growth Yet to Translate Into Improved Living Standards
Some economic experts have expressed mixed reactions to Nigeria’s 4.43 per cent Q2 2026 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, with some saying it is yet to translate into improved living standards for most Nigerians.
The experts spoke with the News Agency of Nigeria in Abuja on Tuesday, while reacting to the latest GDP figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
The NBS had reported that Nigeria’s real GDP grew by 4.43 per cent year-on-year in Q2 2026, higher than the 4.23 per cent recorded in quarter two of 2025.
The NBS report also showed that the agriculture sector grew by 4.39 per cent in Q2 2026, compared with 2.82 per cent in Q2 2025.
The industry sector, however, recorded a lower growth rate of 3.96 per cent, down from 7.46 per cent in Q2 2025, while the services sector grew by 4.60 per cent, compared with 3.94 per cent in the corresponding period of 2025.
The services sector remained the largest contributor to GDP, accounting for 56.62 per cent of aggregate GDP in Q2 2026, slightly higher than its 56.53 per cent recorded in Q2 2025.
In nominal terms, aggregate GDP stood at N119.29 trillion in Q2 2026, compared with N100.73 trillion in Q2 2025, representing an 18.43 per cent year-on-year increase.
The experts agreed that the 4.43 per cent Q2 growth represented an expansion in economic activity but cautioned that it should not, on its own, be taken as evidence of a broad-based recovery.
They said stronger and more sustainable growth would require improved productivity in the real sector, greater job creation, lower production and transportation costs.
They said it would also require increased investment in human capital and measures that would raise the purchasing power of households.
They stressed the need for policies capable of ensuring that growth is translated into better living conditions for the majority of Nigerians.
Prof. Ken Ife, a development economist, said although GDP growth remained an important measure of economic performance, it did not necessarily reflect the welfare of citizens.
Ife said GDP measured aggregate production and consumption but did not adequately capture poverty, income disparities, purchasing power and differences across sectors of the economy.
“The GDP growth does not reflect the state of the economy in respect to citizen welfare.
“It does not reflect poverty issues or disparities in the many sectors and subsectors of the economy,” he said.
He expressed concern about the performance of the industrial sector, particularly manufacturing, saying the sector was not growing strongly enough to drive employment creation.
“When you look at manufacturing, you see that it was pathetic, around 1.3 per cent to 1.5 per cent, while overall industry is 3.96 per cent, which is much lower than 4.43 per cent.”
Ife said the development suggested that the real sector was not yet playing a sufficiently strong role in driving economic expansion.
“The real sector should be generating employment and creating jobs, but it is not driving growth,” he said.
The economist also drew attention to the wide gap between nominal and real GDP growth.
He said that nominal GDP increased by 18.43 per cent largely because of prevailing prices, while real GDP growth of 4.43 per cent was calculated after adjusting for price changes through the GDP deflator.
Ife said the gap underscored the effect of high prices on Nigerians’ purchasing power.
“If the citizens are suffering from very high prices of goods, and the difference between nominal and real is so high, it shows that the people are being held hostage by high prices of goods.”
He said that the economy’s dependence on the export of raw materials and importation of finished products also limited the extent to which GDP growth could generate domestic employment.
On the outlook for the second half of the year, Ife said economic growth could strengthen in Q3 and Q4 because of seasonal factors.
He said the harvest season could boost agricultural output, while increased consumption during the “ember months” and the Christmas period could also support economic activity.
He, however, said that the sustainability of the growth would depend on developments in the oil sector, agriculture, insecurity, flooding, and energy and transportation costs.
The expert said oil production grew by about 7.31 per cent in Q2 2026, compared with 2.57 per cent in the preceding quarter(Q1 2026), but remained below the 20.46 per cent growth recorded in Q2 2025.
He said any significant decline in crude oil prices or production could weaken the growth outlook, although increased domestic refining activity could provide some support through the manufacturing sector.
On agriculture, he said the sector could record stronger growth during the harvest season but remains vulnerable to flooding, insecurity and high transportation costs.
“Agriculture will increase because of the harvest, but you do not know when you are going to measure the third quarter. You may have a problem because flooding is coming,” he said.
He said high energy and transportation costs were also increasing the cost of moving agricultural produce and contributing to higher food prices.
Ife said the growth rate should also be assessed against population growth and urbanisation.
He said that Nigeria’s population growth was about three per cent, while urbanisation was estimated at 4.6 per cent.
“The 4.43 per cent GDP growth, therefore, needs to translate into productive employment and higher incomes for Nigerians to experience meaningful improvement in living standards,” he said.
Another financial expert, Mr Okechukwu Unegbu, said the latest GDP figure should not be interpreted in isolation from poverty and household welfare indicators.
Unegbu, a former President of the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria (CIBN), questioned the extent to which the growth had improved the social and economic conditions of ordinary Nigerians.
“When you look at the poverty rate, which is not declining, and you tell me GDP grew by 4.43 per cent, how does this growth impact the average Nigerian?”
He said economic recovery should, ultimately, be assessed by whether Nigerians were experiencing improvements in their incomes, access to education, employment opportunities and general standard of living.
Unegbu urged the government to invest more in human capital, particularly education and other areas capable of improving productivity and household welfare.
He also called for greater transparency in the use of revenues generated from the removal of fuel subsidy, saying Nigerians need to see tangible benefits from the reforms.
According to him, GDP growth will be more meaningful if it is accompanied by a sustained reduction in poverty and measurable improvements in citizens’ welfare. #GDP Growth Yet to Translate Into Improved Living Standards# Tinubu Welcomes 4.43% GDP Growth
