Airtel Africa Gains 178%, Analysts Differ on Target Price Ahead of IPO
Equities analysts differ on Airtel Africa’s target price as the market looks forward to the group’s initial public offering (IPO) of Airtel Money on the London Stock Exchange in 2026.
Airtel Africa delivered a 177.53% year-to-date gain on the Nigerian Exchange, from its opening price of N2,270 per share in 2026.
The telecom group disclosed a plan to list Airtel Money on the London Stock Exchange, its preferred listing venue in 2026, subject to regulatory approvals.
“We believe a London listing will provide access to a broad international investor base and support the long-term value creation potential of one of Africa’s leading fintech platforms”.
The telecom has seen a strong rally in the Nigerian stock market, with market capitalisation of above N23 trillion, the highest on record, according to data tracked by MarketForces Africa.
In their stock recommendation, equities analysts at Cowry Asset Management Limited set N8,820 as the target price for Airtel Africa, with a reference market price of N6,300 on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) as of Friday.
Airtel Africa Plc traded sideways throughout last week in the stock market, closing at N6300 per share, its latest 52-week high following a recent post-earnings re-rating.
Despite tight trading volume, Airtel Africa topped the list of the most valuable listed companies in the Nigerian stock market, beating Dangote Cement, MTN Nigeria, and BUA Foods to the top spot.
The market value of Airtel Africa Plc.’s 3.758 billion outstanding shares on the NGX remained at N23.676 trillion, the all-time record valuation in the local bourse.
In its stock recommendation, Cowry Asset Limited anticipates a 40% upside in Airtel Africa, with a target price of N8820 per share. The firm forecasted earnings per share of N101.2 for the telecom company, guiding investors to buy the telecom stock at the current price.
Equities analysts are also guiding investors who want to take an early exit from the company to do so when the share price reaches N7,245. Investors are advised to set a stop-loss at N5,355 per share.
Meanwhile, analysts at CardinalStone Securities Limited have placed Airtel Africa shares on hold, with a 12-month target price of N6422.10.
Equities analysts at CardinalStone Securities Limited updated estimates for NGSE: AIRTELAFRI following its Q1’26/27 results, raising 2026/2027 revenue forecast to $7.83 billion from $7.75 billion.
The revenue upgrade was anchored in broad-based growth across voice, data, and mobile money, and an improving margin trajectory, underpinned by efficiency initiatives that limit the impact of input cost volatility.
The investment firm notes that the planned Airtel Money IPO will provide an avenue for a reduced conglomerate discount and enhanced funding flexibility, which can be utilised to further scale the mobile money business.
Accordingly, CardinalStone said it increased the firm’s 12-month Target Price to N6,422.1 from N5,818.43 and downgraded the telco to HOLD following the share price’s appreciation since the last update.
Airtel Africa revealed plans to list its mobile money business on the London Stock Exchange before the end of 2026, subject to favourable market conditions.
“We believe that the standalone listing of the business could narrow the conglomerate discount value. Globally, the conglomerate discount has been estimated at 10.0% by Aswath Damodaran, and in some cases it could be as high as 30.0%, depending on the industry”, CardinalStone said.
Airtel Africa reported a 31.0% year-on-year topline growth in Q1’26/27, buoyed by organic growth across revenue segments and currency appreciation in select operating markets.
Group revenue in reported currency increased by 31.0% to $1,853 million, with constant currency growth of 21.1%. Reported currency revenue growth exceeded constant-currency growth, reflecting currency appreciation across most markets.
In Q1’27, Group constant-currency revenue growth of 21.1% was underpinned by Nigerian revenue growth of 29.8%, East Africa growth of 17.8%, and Francophone Africa growth of 18.0%.
Mobile services revenue increased by 28.2% in reported currency and by 19.1% in constant currency to $1,528 million. Constant-currency growth was driven by voice revenue growth of 11.2% and data revenue growth of 27.2%.
Mobile money revenues grew by 38.9% in reported currency and by 25.8% in constant currency, driven by customer growth of 23.3% to reach 56.5 million and average revenue per user (ARPU) rising by 3.5% to $2.4.
The telecom company reported that the group’s profit before tax rose by about 32% year on year to $360 million for the quarter ended 30 June 2026, compared with $273 million in the prior period.
This was bolstered by a higher operating profit, partially offset by finance costs – exceptional items of $37 million and derivative and foreign exchange losses of $6 million in the current period, compared with $22 million in derivative and foreign exchange gains in the prior period.
Total tax charges were $162 million, compared with $117 million in the prior period. Tax charges increased by $45m, largely driven by the higher profit before tax in the current period and withholding taxes on dividends paid by subsidiaries.
Airtel Africa’s effective tax rate was 40.9% compared to 40.1% in the previous financial year. The effective tax rate is higher than the weighted-average statutory corporate tax rate of approximately 32%, largely due to the profit mix across various OpCos and withholding taxes on dividends paid by subsidiaries.
Profit after tax surged by about 27% to $198 million during the quarter ended 30 June 2026, as compared to $156 million in the prior period.
