Global Economic Outlook Improves Modestly, Remains Uncertain—Chief Economists
The global economic outlook has improved modestly but remains uncertain, with asset valuations, mounting debt, geoeconomic realignment and rapid artificial intelligence deployment creating both opportunities and risks, according to the World Economic Forum’s latest Chief Economists’ Outlook, published today.
Although 53% of chief economists expect global economic conditions to weaken in the year ahead, this marks a significant improvement from the 72% who held this view in September 2025.
“The Chief Economists survey reveals three defining trends for 2026: surging AI investment and its implications for the global economy; debt approaching critical thresholds with unprecedented shifts in fiscal and monetary policies; and trade realignments,” said Saadia Zahidi, Managing Director, World Economic Forum.
“Governments and companies will have to navigate an uncertain near-term environment with agility while continuing to build resilience and invest in the long-term fundamentals of growth.”
AI and other asset valuations are under scrutiny
Concentrated AI stock gains are splitting the views of the chief economists. A narrow majority (52%) are expecting AI-related US stocks to decline over the next year, but 40% foresee further increases.
Should values fall sharply, 74% believe impacts would spread across the global economy. Cryptocurrencies face bleaker prospects, with 62% anticipating further declines following market turbulence, while 54% believe gold has peaked after recent rallies.
When it comes to the potential expected returns from AI, there is wide variation across regions and sectors. Roughly four in five chief economists expect productivity gains within two years in the US and China. Chief economists expect the information technology sector to adopt AI fastest, with nearly three-quarters anticipating imminent productivity gains.
Financial services, supply chain, healthcare, engineering and retail follow as “fast-movers”, with one to two-year timelines. By firm size, the chief economists expect companies with 1,000+ employees to see gains earlier than others: 77% of chief economists expect meaningful productivity gains within two years.
The employment picture in relation to AI is expected to evolve over time: two thirds expect modest job losses over the next two years, but views diverge sharply over the longer term: 57% anticipate net losses over 10 years, while 32% foresee gains as new occupations emerge.
Debt may drive difficult trade-offs
Managing elevated debt levels has become a central challenge for policy-makers, particularly as spending pressures rise. Defence spending is almost unanimously expected to increase, with 97% of chief economists anticipating rises in advanced economies and 74% in emerging markets.
Digital infrastructure and energy spending are also expected to rise. Most other sectors are expected to see stable levels of spending, while a majority of surveyed economists anticipate spending on environmental protection to decline in both advanced (59%) and emerging economies (61%).
Views are split equally on the likelihood of sovereign debt crises in advanced economies, while nearly half (47%) see them as likely in the year ahead in emerging economies. A large majority of chief economists expect governments to rely on higher inflation to reduce burdens (67% in advanced economies, 61% in emerging markets).
Tax increases are also viewed as likely by 62% for advanced economies and 53% for emerging markets. Some 53% of chief economists anticipate seeing debt restructuring or default as a debt management strategy in emerging markets over five years, compared to just 6% for advanced economies.
Trade flows and regional growth outlooks are realigning
Global trade and investment are adjusting to a new, competitive reality. Chief economists expect import tariffs between the US and China to remain mostly stable, though competition could intensify in other domains.
Some 91% expect US tech export restrictions to China to remain or increase; 84% anticipate the same for Chinese critical mineral restrictions.
In this new context, 94% of chief economists expect more bilateral trade deals and 69% anticipate growth in regional trade agreements. Some 89% expect Chinese exports into non-US markets to further increase, while surveyed economists are split on the future of global trade volumes.
Meanwhile, almost half of them foresee the continued rise of international investment flows, and 57% expect FDI into the US to increase compared to 9% who expect increased inflows to China.
When it comes to growth expectation among the chief economists surveyed, South Asia leads with 66% anticipating strong or very strong performance, driven by robust growth in India. Some 45% expect strong growth and 55% moderate growth in East Asia and the Pacific.
Some 36% expect strong growth and 64% moderate growth in the MENA region. The US outlook improved notably, with 69% expecting moderate growth versus 49% in September 2025, but only 11% expecting strong growth.
China faces mixed prospects, with 47% expecting moderate growth and 24% strong growth and nearly an equal number – 29% – expecting weak growth. Europe confronts the weakest outlook, with 53% expecting weak growth, 44% moderate growth, and only 3% anticipating strong growth.
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