Fitch Upgrades Côte d’Ivoire to ‘BB’ with Stable Outlook
Fitch Ratings has upgraded Cote d’Ivoire’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to ‘BB’ from ‘BB-‘ with a stable outlook. The upgrade of Côte d’Ivoire’s IDRs reflects the following key rating drivers and their relative weights:
The global ratings firm said the October presidential election saw only limited unrest, suggesting the country is moving beyond its history of election-related major civil unrest.
The confirmation of President Ouattara’s victory for another five years, and the administration’s adherence to the IMF supported reform agenda and the 2026-2030 National Development Plan underpin continuity in macro fiscal management.
The December legislative polls will test the government majority, but analysts expect economic policy stability under executive authority.
Fitch analysts project real GDP growth of 6.4% in 2025, 6.5% in 2026 and 6.6% in 2027, well above the forecast ‘BB’ median of 3.5-3.9% for the period.
The country’s growth is broadening beyond construction and services, with rising output in oil and gas with Eni’s Baleine phase 2, and expanding mining.
Agriculture remains resilient despite cocoa and coffee weather shocks, with growth in cashew and rubber production. Ratings analysts expect a medium term cocoa rebound supported by higher farm gate prices and processing capacity expansion.
Inflation has fallen sharply and analysts expect average inflation to remain under 2% over 2025-27 supported by the euro peg and Banque Centrale des États de l’Afrique de l’Ouest’s (BCEAO) tight policy.
Beyond 2027, analysts forecast GDP growth will reach at least 6.7% a year. Upside from oil and gold developments is not in Fitch Ratings baseline.
In hydrocarbons, Baleine phase 3 (production above 150,000 bpd expected by 2028) plus the Calao discovery – potential of more than 80,000 barrel of oil equivalent per day- and new exploration commitments could lift output materially beyond 2027.
In mining, the Koné gold mine project is expected to lead to an average annual production of 300,000 ounces (1.3% of current GDP at current prices) over 16 years from 2027.
Government debt/GDP is set to decline on strong nominal growth and narrower deficits, reaching 58.2% in 2025 from 59.5% in 2024.
“We forecast a further decline to 56.1% by 2027 converging toward the ‘BB’ median of 55% over the period”, Fitch said. It added that the country’s interest/revenue will peak at 16.3% in 2025 then fall to 13.3% in 2027 (16% in 2024), driven by rising revenue and proactive debt management.
Authorities have managed liabilities – Eurobond buybacks and longer dated local issuance – and used new instruments to broaden the investor base and lower costs.
Fitch analysts forecast the central government deficit at 3.0% of GDP in 2025, down from 4.0% in 2024, with tax revenue gains from the 2024-2028 mobilisation strategy (excises, VAT base, exemptions, property tax, digitalisation and anti fraud).
Further revenue mobilisation efforts could come below the authorities’ targets, but analysts believe an adjustment in capex could offset shortfalls.
Government current spending continues to trend down toward pre pandemic shares of GDP while ratings analysts expect the deficit to remain close to 3% in 2026-2027.
BCEAO reserves have nearly doubled to around USD33 billion in the year to October 2025, representing six months coverage of regional imports, an increase from 3.8 months in 2024.
This was supported by stronger export receipts, re established market access and official disbursements across West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU). Côte d’Ivoire’s contribution is significant, reflecting diversified exports (cocoa, oil, and gold) as well as important financing inflows.
Fitch analysts estimate that the country’s current account deficit will narrow to about 1.7% of GDP in 2025 from roughly 4.0% in 2024. This is expected to be driven by a larger goods surplus as export values in cocoa (beans and processed), cashews, crude oil, rubber and gold outpace imports.
“We project a further improvement to around 1.5% in 2026 and 2027, supported by the ramp up in oil and gold exports, while services and income deficits remain manageable”.
Cote d’Ivoire’s ‘BB’ rating reflects strong growth, sound fiscal management and solid macroeconomic policies, illustrated by a long record of low inflation and supported by strong engagement with the IMF.
Weaknesses include low income per capita relative to ‘BB’ category peers, low government revenues and high government debt relative to the country’s development level.
Fitch said continued engagement with the IMF and robust support from multilateral and bilateral partners provide policy anchors and financing flexibility, mitigating external shocks and underpinning the reform agenda beyond programme cycles.
It added that Senegal’s stress poses some risk to WAEMU reserves and market contagion, including via banks. However, auctions remain orderly and reported Ivorian bank exposures are likely overstated due to regional intermediation, limiting direct balance sheet transmission.
Instability in Mali and Burkina Faso has intensified, raising spillover risks to Côte d’Ivoire via cross border attacks, refugee inflows, and criminal networks.
Côte d’Ivoire counters this with reinforced northern border security, regional coordination, and financial support and investments in northern regions.
These measures have limited incidents so far but require sustained resources amid a deteriorating regional backdrop. “We assume no significant spillovers to growth or consolidation under Fitch ratings baseline”. Naira Extends Volatility as NFEM Rate Depreciates to N1,456
