US Treasuries No Longer Global Fixed Income Safe Haven
The sell-off in US Treasuries on Wednesday sends a clear message: the world’s most trusted sovereign debt is no longer the ultimate safe harbour for investors—and the fallout could ultimately threaten the dollar’s supremacy too.
This is the alarming warning from Nigel Green, CEO and Founder of global financial advisory giant, deVere Group, as US President Donald Trump’s new tariffs on major trading partners took hold on Wednesday, and the traditional stability of Treasuries was upended.
Yields surged dramatically, with the 10-year Treasury yield hitting 4.51% before easing to 4.42%—still a stunning 16 basis points higher on the day.
The 30-year yield even broke above 5%, a psychologically critical line. Only days ago, the 10-year yield sat under 3.9%, highlighting just how swiftly confidence is evaporating. “The so-called safe haven has been stripped bare,” says Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group.
“US Treasuries are behaving more like a high-risk asset than the traditional ballast investors once relied upon.
“The turbulence in Treasuries is globalizing fast. Borrowing costs in the UK and Japan also jumped sharply, showing the disruption isn’t confined to American shores. The asset that once served as the anchor for world markets is now sparking instability.”
Trump’s tariffs are acting as an accelerant, reigniting inflation fears, sowing uncertainty over global trade, and triggering a rapid move away from assets previously viewed as rock-solid. Hedge funds, major holders of Treasuries, have been cutting back risk and selling, forced to unwind basis trades and other complex strategies, further magnifying the sell-off.
“Markets are telling us in no uncertain terms that the old playbook no longer works,” Nigel Green adds. “If your portfolio still assumes Treasuries are the universal fallback in times of trouble, you are already behind the curve.”
Spreads between Treasury yields and interest rate swaps have widened sharply, a flashing red light that points to deep fractures in market plumbing. But the implications don’t stop at Treasuries. “This turmoil poses an even bigger threat: it chips away at the dollar’s historic safe-haven status.”
For decades, investors flocked to the greenback during bouts of volatility, trusting in the strength of US institutions, the liquidity of its markets, and the relative safety of its assets. Now, as tariffs inject fresh uncertainty into trade and investment flows, that trust is being tested.
Rising Treasury yields raise borrowing costs across the economy, tightening financial conditions just as global confidence becomes more fragile. “If Treasuries are no longer seen as the risk-free asset, the logical next question is: how much longer can the dollar maintain its crown as the ultimate safe haven?” the deVere CEO asks.
“Tariffs may deliver short-term political wins, but they carry long-term strategic costs—and threatening the dollar’s privileged status is a risk with enormous consequences.”
deVere believes this bond market shock is not an isolated event. It’s a signal of deeper, structural change. The combination of tariffs, rising yields, and financial system stress is rewiring the very foundations of global investing.
“The myth of the invulnerable US Treasury—and by extension, the unshakable dollar—is being tested in real time. He concludes: “Those who recognize this shift early will have the opportunity not just to protect capital, but to grow it, in a world where safe havens must now be earned, not assumed.
“The stars and stripes no longer guarantee shelter.” #US Treasuries No Longer Global Fixed Income Safe Haven First Holdco Falls below N1 Trillion in Equities Market
