U.S. Growth Forecasts Revised Up After Delayed GDP Release
Fitch Ratings has raised its estimate of US GDP growth in 2025 and its forecast for growth in 2026 after incorporating economic data releases that were delayed because of the government shutdown late last year.
GDP is now estimated to have expanded by 2.1% in 2025 compared to a forecast of 1.8% in Fitch’s December 2025 Global Economic Outlook (GEO). Fitch analysts now forecast growth of 2.0% in 2026 compared to 1.9% in the last GEO.
Growth in the third quarter of 2025 was considerably stronger than anticipated at 1.1% quarter on quarter, with upside surprises in consumption, government spending and net trade.
Private investment growth was weaker than anticipated but IT-related investment was still up by 14% year on year and is contributing significantly to overall GDP growth.
Buoyant equity markets are supporting consumer spending which grew by 0.9% in the third quarter of 25. Consumption has held up surprisingly well despite a slowdown in real household income growth through 2025 as employment growth has weakened.
The saving ratio fell from 5.1% of income in January 2025 to 4.0% in September. Recent consumer price index inflation trends have been hard to interpret given incomplete data for October.
“We estimate that inflation rose to 3.0% in December 2025 from 2.7% in November and will rise further in 2026 – reflecting delayed tariff pass through – ending the year at 3.2%”, Fitch said.
U.S Unemployment is expected to average 4.6% in 2026, close to recent outturns as the impact of slower job growth is dampened by a slowdown in the labour force. Fitch analysts expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates twice in the first half of 2026, taking the Fed Funds upper band rate to 3.25%.
Naira Drops at Official Window as 2026 FX Projections Emerge
