OPEC Keeps Demand Forecast as Output Rises
The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) left demand forecast unchanged as crude oil production increased by a total of 203,000 barrels per day (bpd) in February to average 26.57 million bpd, according to OPEC’s monthly oil market report released on Tuesday.
Crude oil output increased mainly in Libya and Nigeria, while production in Iran and Iraq decreased. Libya’s production climbed by around 144,000 bpd, the largest growth seen last month, while output rose in Nigeria and Saudi Arabia by 47,000 bpd and 18,000 bpd, respectively.
Production in Iran and Iraq declined by 15,000 bpd and 14,000 bpd, respectively. Demand for OPEC crude is projected to stand at about 28.5 million bpd in 2024, 1.1 million bpd higher than in 2023, while demand for OPEC crude in 2025 is expected to reach about 28.8 million bpd.
Meanwhile, the non-OPEC output forecast for 2024 has been revised downward. OPEC natural gas liquids and non-conventional liquids production is expected to increase by around 60,000 bpd to average 5.5 million bpd this year, and additional growth of 110,000 bpd is forecast for 2025 to an average 5.6 million bpd.
Non-OPEC liquids output is forecast to grow by 1.1 million bpd to average 70.5 million bpd in 2024. ‘This reflects a 120,000 bpd downward revision, compared with the previous month’s assessment, due to the extension of additional voluntary adjustments in 2Q24 by some countries,’ it said in OPEC’s report.
In 2025, non-OPEC liquids production is expected to reach 71.9 million bpd, with a growth rate of 1.4 million bpd. The main drivers for liquid supply growth are projected to be the US, Brazil, Canada, Russia, Kazakhstan and Norway, while production is forecast to see a major decline in Mexico and Angola.
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2024 remains unchanged from last month’s assessment at 2.2 million bpd, year-on-year, OPEC said.
Total world oil demand is projected to reach 104.5 million bpd this year, ‘supported by strong air travel demand and increased road mobility, including on-road diesel and trucking, as well as healthy industrial, construction, and agricultural activities, particularly in non-OECD countries,’ OPEC said.
Oil demand in the OECD is forecast to grow by around 300,000 bpd year over year, led by OECD Americas and further supported by a minor uptick from OECD Europe and Asia Pacific.
In the non-OECD, oil demand is expected to grow by 2 million bpd year over year, driven by China and supported by the Middle East, other Asia, India and Latin America.
In 2025, global oil demand is expected to see a robust year-over-year growth of 1.8 million bpd. The OECD is expected to grow by 100,000 bpd on an annual basis, while demand in the non-OECD is forecast to increase by 1.7 million bpd. #OPEC Keeps Demand Forecast as Output Rises
