Nigeria’s Oct. Inflation Rate Projected to Print Below 18%
It is anticipated that Nigeria’s headline inflation rate will register below 18% for October, as forecasts suggest that the consumer price index (CPI) will continue its ongoing decline.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is set to release the October 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Monday, and Cowry Research projects headline inflation to ease further to 17.83%.
In a note, the investment firm highlighted that the lower inflation print projection is supported by continued naira stability, improved FX liquidity, and sustained food supply from the ongoing harvest season.
The investment firm said although the upward adjustment in petrol moto spirit (PMS) prices in early October introduced mild cost pressures, the overall impact on headline inflation should remain limited due to petrol’s relatively low weighting in the CPI basket.
This projection builds on Nigeria’s encouraging inflation path, analysts said.
In September 2025, headline inflation moderated to 18.02%, down from 20.12% in August—marking the sixth consecutive month of disinflation and beating Cowry Research’s forecast of 19.73%.
Month-on-month inflation slowed to 0.72%, from 0.74% in August, signalling softer price increases across key CPI divisions.
On a year-on-year basis, headline inflation was 14.68 percentage points lower than the 32.70% recorded in September 2024, the softest annual print since May 2022 (17.71%).
On a year on year basis, the major divisional contributors to headline inflation were Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages (7.21%), Restaurants & Accommodation Services (2.33%), and Transport (1.92%).
Similarly, on a month-on-month basis, food remained the single largest driver, contributing 0.29%, followed by restaurants (0.09%) and transport (0.08%).
Food inflation delivered the most notable relief, moderating sharply to 16.87% year on year in September from 37.77% a year earlier—reflecting both strong base effects and improved supply during the harvest season.
Prices of maize, garri, beans, onions, and fresh produce softened significantly. On a m/m basis, food inflation printed –1.57% in September compared with 1.65% in August, confirming a rare deflationary trend.
Core inflation also eased to 19.53% year on year, from 27.43% in September 2024. On a monthly basis, core inflation printed 1.42%, slightly below 1.43% in August, supported by greater FX market stability and improved dollar liquidity that helped reduce import-driven cost pressures.
Bonny Light crude averaged $66.15/bbl in October 2025, down 5.77% from $70.20/bbl in September.
Conversely, PMS prices rose from N865/litre in early October to N992/litre mid-month due to supply disruptions linked to the PENGASSAN industrial action. Prices later moderated to N922/litre as distribution recovered.
The temporary spike exerted upward pressure on transportation, hospitality, and food services—sectors typically sensitive to energy costs. The naira recorded a strong performance in the FX market, appreciating by 2.55% to average N1,459.54/$1 in October, compared with N1,497.79/$1 in September.
This appreciation helped moderate prices of several imported goods, with the average price of imported rice dropping 0.71% month on month.
Cowry Research maintains that the sustained decline in headline inflation, combined with the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) September rate cut, reinforces expectations of an additional easing when the MPC meets in November 2025.
A further 50 basis-point reduction remains likely, supported by improved macroeconomic stability in recent months, Cowry Asset Limited projected. While emerging risks—from policy uncertainties to public commentary—may pose mild headwinds, analysts said they expect timely interventions to contain any potential spillovers. Ethereum Price Climbs as Next Rally Begins to Form
