Nigeria’s Foreign Reserve Climbs, Reaches Highest in 8 Years
Up by about $510 million in 2026, Nigeria’s foreign reserve hit its highest in the last 8 years, driven by an increase in crude oil production and relative commodity price stability.
Data from the Central Bank showed that gross external reserves stood at $46.012 billion as of January 22, 2026, with 1.18% in blocked funds. The currency balance was last seen in August 2018, according to CBN data.
Nigeria’s external reserves balance settled at $45.5005 billion on December 31 amidst reforms, and oil production surge following the implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act.
According to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), Nigeria’s crude oil production, including condensates, averaged 1.64 mbpd in 2025, representing a 5.81% year-on-year increase from 1.55 mbpd in 2024.
On a month-on-month basis, production declined by 3.42% to an average of 1.54 mbpd in December, compared with 1.60 mbpd in November. The affected foreign receipt from hydrocarbon sales last month.
Excluding condensates, crude oil output rose by 8.21% year-on-year, increasing from 1.34 mbpd in 2024 to 1.45 mbpd in 2025. The improvement enhanced Nigerian government fiscal performance, but borrowings increased across the external and local debt capital markets.
Dissecting the latest trend in hydrocarbon wealth, analysts’ closer examination of 2025 production data revealed a strong performance across Nigeria’s major export terminals.
The Forcados terminal recorded a 12.08% year-on-year increase, with average production rising to 8.56 million barrels from 7.64 million barrels in 2024. Output at the Escravos terminal increased by 3.98% to 4.29 million barrels, up from 4.13 million barrels in the prior year.
Similarly, production at the Qua Iboe terminal rose by 16.69%, averaging 4.42 million barrels compared with 3.79 million barrels in 2024. The Bonny terminal delivered the strongest performance, with output surging by 25.19% to 7.41 million barrels from 5.92 million barrels in the previous year.
Production at the Brass terminal also increased by 18.04%, averaging 1.06 million barrels in 2025. Looking ahead, we expect crude oil production to improve modestly, averaging around 1.71 mbpd, up from 1.64 mbpd in 2025.
Most of the investments recorded in 2025 were directed towards infrastructure rehabilitation and upgrades to smaller fields, which are unlikely to generate a material uplift in overall output.
While authorities remain optimistic about raising production to approximately 2.06 mbpd, OPEC’s decision to cap Nigeria’s crude oil output (excluding condensates) at 1.50 mbpd in 2026 highlights the limited scope for significant growth in the absence of fresh, large-scale investments.
Analysts said the continued decline in crude oil theft and pipeline vandalism remains a positive development and should support more stable performance across the oil sector. |Global Growth Outlook to Remain Stable Amidst Headwinds
