Global Economy Shows Resilience Amid Historic Trade, Policy Uncertainty
The global economy is proving more resilient than anticipated despite persistent trade tensions and policy uncertainty, according to the World Bank’s latest Global Economic Prospects report.
Global growth is projected to remain broadly steady over the next two years, easing to 2.6% in 2026 before rising to 2.7% in 2027, an upward revision from the June forecast.
The resilience reflects better-than-expected growth—especially in the United States, which accounts for about two-thirds of the upward revision to the forecast in 2026.
Even so, if these forecasts hold, the 2020s are on track to be the weakest decade for global growth since the 1960s. The sluggish pace is widening the gap in living standards across the world, the report finds: at the end of 2025, nearly all advanced economies enjoyed per capita incomes exceeding their 2019 levels, but about one in four developing economies had lower per capita incomes.
In 2025, growth was supported by a surge in trade ahead of policy changes and swift readjustments in global supply chains. These boosts are expected to fade in 2026 as trade and domestic demand soften.
However, the easing global financial conditions and fiscal expansion in several large economies should help cushion the slowdown, according to the report. Global inflation is projected to edge down to 2.6% in 2026, reflecting softer labor markets and lower energy prices.
Growth is expected to pick up in 2027 as trade flows adjust and policy uncertainty diminishes.
“With each passing year, the global economy has become less capable of generating growth and seemingly more resilient to policy uncertainty,” said Indermit Gill, the World Bank Group’s Chief Economist and Senior Vice President for Development Economics.
“But economic dynamism and resilience cannot diverge for long without fracturing public finance and credit markets. Over the coming years, the world economy is set to grow slower than it did in the troubled 1990s—while carrying record levels of public and private debt.
“To avert stagnation and joblessness, governments in emerging and advanced economies must aggressively liberalize private investment and trade, rein in public consumption, and invest in new technologies and education.”
In 2026, growth in developing economies is expected to slow to 4% from 4.2% in 2025 before edging up to 4.1% in 2027 as trade tensions ease, commodity prices stabilize, financial conditions improve, and investment flows strengthen.
Growth is projected to be higher in low-income countries, reaching an average of 5.6% over 2026–27, buoyed by firming domestic demand, recovering exports, and moderating inflation.
However, this will not be sufficient to narrow the income gap between developing and advanced economies. Per capita income growth in developing economies is projected to be 3% in 2026—about a percentage point below its 2000-2019 average.
At this pace, per capita income in developing economies is expected to be only 12% of the level in advanced economies.
These trends could intensify the job-creation challenge confronting developing economies, where 1.2 billion young people will reach working age over the next decade. Overcoming the jobs challenge will require a comprehensive policy effort centered on three pillars.
The first is strengthening physical, digital, and human capital to raise productivity and employability. The second is improving the business environment by enhancing policy credibility and regulatory certainty so firms can expand.
The third is mobilizing private capital at scale to support investment. Together, these measures can help shift job creation toward more productive and formal employment, supporting income growth and poverty alleviation.
In addition, developing economies need to bolster their fiscal sustainability, which has been eroded in recent years by overlapping shocks, growing development needs, and rising debt-servicing costs.
A special-focus chapter of the report provides a comprehensive analysis of the use of fiscal rules by developing economies, which set clear limits on government borrowing and spending to help manage public finances.
These rules are generally linked to stronger growth, higher private investment, more stable financial sectors, and a greater capacity to cope with external shocks.
“With public debt in emerging and developing economies at its highest level in more than half a century, restoring fiscal credibility has become an urgent priority,” said M. Ayhan Kose, the World Bank Group’s Deputy Chief Economist and Director of the Prospects Group.
“Well-designed fiscal rules can help governments stabilize debt, rebuild policy buffers, and respond more effectively to shocks. But rules alone are not enough: credibility, enforcement, and political commitment ultimately determine whether fiscal rules deliver stability and growth.”
More than half of developing economies now have at least one fiscal rule in place. These can include limits on fiscal deficits, public debt, government expenditures, or revenue collection.
Developing economies that adopt fiscal rules typically see their budget balance improve by 1.4 percentage points of GDP after five years, once interest payments and the ups and downs of the business cycle are accounted for.
Use of fiscal rules also increases by 9 percentage points the likelihood of a multi-year improvement in budget balances. However, the medium- and long-term benefits of fiscal rules depend heavily on the strength of institutions, the economic context in which the rules are introduced, and how the rules are designed, the report finds. MTN Nigeria Rallies to Record High on Renewed Investor Confidence
