GCR Affirms African Export-Import Bank Ratings, Revises Outlook
GCR Ratings has affirmed African Export-Import Bank’s (Afreximbank) international scale long and short-term issuer ratings of A and A2, respectively. The African-focused rating agency said the outlook has been revised to stable from Rating Watch Evolving.
The Bank’s ratings reflect a robust counter-cyclical mandate, underpinned by a strong track record and ongoing preferential creditor treatment (PCT) from shareholders, GCR said.
Ratings analysts explained that the Bank’s solid capitalisation and diversified funding profile provide significant buffers against emerging credit risks.
GCR hinted that Afreximbank ratings also consider a diverse shareholding base, although exposure to high-risk operating environments and potential soft market confidence pose challenges.
According to GCR, Afreximbank’s rating outlook change from Rating Watch Evolving to stable indicates that there is immaterial downside risk related to sovereign debt restructurings.
This follows the announcement by the Government of the Republic of Ghana, acting through the Ministry of Finance, Afreximbank, regarding resolution of the issues surrounding the USD750 million facility signed in 2022.
GCR said preferred creditor status (PCS) is considered strong, bestowed by convention, not just by treaty or law. The preferred creditor status is not just a legal status, but is embodied in practice, and is granted by the member shareholders.
The resolution to the satisfaction of Afreximbank is evidence to PCS in practice as it continues to receive preferential creditor treatment from member states.
Ratings analysts highlighted that Afreximbank’s risk profile remains resilient despite obligor and geographic concentration, with a non-performing loan ratio of 2.5% as of 30 September 2025, from 2.4% at the end of Q1 2025.
“We do not foresee a significant deterioration in asset quality, projecting a ratio below 3.0% over the next six to 12 months. GCR also assesses the credit loss ratio (cost of risk) as a measure of asset quality.
“Afreximbank’s cost of risk was 1.8% as of 30 September 2025, from 2.2% at the end of 2024. This will be monitored closely over the following 12 to 18 months, with credit losses exceeding 2.5% viewed unfavourably.
“The Bank’s funding structure is intentionally diversified, minimising potential adverse impact on its market access. However, geopolitical factors may introduce uncertainty in global capital flows, affecting pricing and the timing of debt issuances.
“Liquidity remains strong, with GCR liquid assets coverage of total wholesale funding rising to 0.4x in Q3 2025 from 0.3x at 31 December 2024, despite a 6.0% increase in borrowings.
“Capitalisation remains robust, as evidenced by a GCR leverage ratio of 17.1% in Q3 2025, up from 16.9% at 31 December 2024. Forecasts indicate a leverage ratio of 17.0 to 18.0% over the next six to 12 months, supported by strong internal capital generation.
African Export-Import Bank’s USD5bn Global Medium Term Note (GMTN) Programme
The Notes issued under the GMTN Programme are unsecured and unsubordinated obligations of the Issuer and rank pari passu with all other unsecured and unsubordinated indebtedness and monetary obligations of the Issuer. The Notes’ rating, according to GCR, is aligned with the Issuer’s long-term international scale issuer rating.
The Bank’s international scale rating outlook has been revised to Stable from Rating Watch Evolving following the resolution of uncertainties related to sovereign debt restructurings and the demonstrable enforceability of PCS.
The Bank is expected to continue effectively fulfilling its mandate while maintaining strong liquidity. Preferential treatment is anticipated to remain robust.
While downward macroeconomic pressures will continue to affect several member sovereigns and currencies across the continent, the bank’s capital buffers are deemed adequate. Nigeria’s $150m Suit Against Google, GoDaddy.com Adjourns
