Fitch Rates Shell Petroleum B.V. ‘AA-‘ with Stable Outlook
Fitch Ratings has assigned Shell Petroleum B.V. (SPBV) a Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) of ‘AA-‘ with a Stable Outlook. Fitch has also affirmed Shell plc’s Long-Term IDR at ‘AA-
Shell was accorded a stable rating outlook and Short-Term IDR at ‘F1+’, following the update of its Corporate Rating Criteria and the Sector Navigators – Addendum to the Corporate Rating Criteria dated 9 January 2026.
Fitch said the Long-Term IDR for SPBV is equalised with Shell’s, in line with the ratings agency’s Parent and Subsidiary Linkage (PSL) Rating Criteria.
Shell’s Long-Term IDR reflects its large scale of global operations, broad, integrated and diversified business model across the energy and petrochemicals markets, a large hydrocarbons reserve base and its low leverage, Fitch said.
Ratings analysts said Shell’s management is seeking to strengthen the portfolio, prepare for structural changes linked to the energy transition and deliver strong shareholder returns.
“ We assess the operational and strategic incentives for Shell to support SPBV as ‘High’. SPBV holds more than a quarter of Shell’s net assets.
“It operates as an integrated energy business, including upstream oil and gas production in Kazakhstan and Nigeria, integrated liquefied natural gas (LNG) assets in Qatar and Nigeria, trading activities plus midstream and downstream operations in Europe.
“SPBV is fully integrated into Shell’s management, including resource planning, product flow, risk management, policies and procedures. Legal incentive is scored at ‘Medium’ as operations are funded through the group’s central treasury operations.
Shell’s business profile, according to Fitch, is underpinned by large upstream production of 2.6 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (mmboe/d; 2024 excluding joint ventures and affiliates), alongside large oil and gas reserves and low production costs.
The group benefits from broad integration across the value chain, including midstream, downstream, trading, and marketing operations in major global energy and petrochemicals markets, and holds a leading position in LNG.
Shell’s strategic priorities include simplifying its processes and portfolio, reducing operating costs, lowering the break-even price for upstream assets, and aligning production with long-term demand trends.
“ We anticipate EBITDA net leverage to remain low at 0.4x-0.7x over 2025-2027, versus 0.2x-0.3x over 2022-2024, based on our base-case price assumptions for oil and gas, leaving ample headroom at the ‘AA-‘ rating”.
Shell has indicated that it may use debt capacity to support shareholder returns at times of lower hydrocarbon prices provided credit metrics remain conservative.
As a result, Fitch analysts said rating forecast indicates net debt increasing over 2025 and 2026 to fund a portion of shareholder distributions.
“ We assume the Brent oil price to average about USD63/barrel (bbl) in 2026, down from USD69/bbl in 2025, with geopolitical risks supporting prices while large oversupply constrains them.
“LNG supply will expand in 2026, but solid regional demand and contract structures will support prices. The energy transition momentum is slowing due to stronger government support for hydrocarbon-based energy in some countries, notably the US.
“However, we expect moderate global oil demand growth in 2026 on slower economic growth, a very weak petrochemicals sector, efficiency improvements, and rising electric vehicle adoption”.
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